Between CF Industries and Nutrien, Which Stock Looks Set to Break Out?
Nutrien fell -6.1% during the past day. You may be tempted to buy more or may want to reduce your exposure. But there is an entirely different perspective you might be missing. Is there a better alternative? Turns out, its peer CF Industries gives you more. CF Industries (CF) stock offers superior revenue growth across key periods, better profitability, and relatively lower valuation vs Nutrien (NTR) stock, suggesting you may be better off investing in CF
- CF’s quarterly revenue growth was 22.8%, vs. NTR’s 5.1%.
- In addition, its Last 12 Months revenue growth came in at 19.3%, ahead of NTR’s 3.5%.
- CF leads on profitability over both periods – LTM margin of 33.5% and 3-year average of 32.1%.
These differences become even clearer when you look at the financials side by side. The table highlights how NTR’s fundamentals stack up against those of CF on growth, margins, momentum, and valuation multiples.
Valuation & Performance Overview
| NTR | CF | Preferred | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | |||
| P/EBIT Ratio | 9.7 | 8.0 | CF |
| Revenue Growth | |||
| Last Quarter | 5.1% | 22.8% | CF |
| Last 12 Months | 3.5% | 19.3% | CF |
| Last 3 Year Average | -10.1% | -10.6% | NTR |
| Operating Margins | |||
| Last 12 Months | 14.4% | 33.5% | CF |
| Last 3 Year Average | 13.0% | 32.1% | CF |
| Momentum | |||
| Last 3 Year Return | 21.5% | 79.7% | CF |
Note: For “Last 3 Year Return” metric, preferred stock is one with higher returns unless the returns are too high (>300%) which creates risk of sell off.
See more revenue details: NTR Revenue Comparison | CF Revenue Comparison
See more margin details: NTR Operating Income Comparison | CF Operating Income Comparison
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See detailed fundamentals on Buy or Sell CF Stock and Buy or Sell NTR Stock. Below we compare market return and related metrics across years.
Historical Market Performance
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | Avg | Best | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||||
| NTR Return | 62% | -1% | -20% | -16% | 43% | 34% | 107% | ||
| CF Return | 87% | 22% | -5% | 10% | -7% | 68% | 275% | <=== | |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -3% | 77% | ||
| Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||||
| NTR Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 33% | 42% | 67% | 100% | 60% | ||
| CF Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 42% | 58% | 50% | 100% | 64% | <=== | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | 60% | ||
| Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||||
| NTR Max Drawdown | 0% | -9% | -27% | -18% | 0% | -4% | -10% | ||
| CF Max Drawdown | -0% | -9% | -29% | -12% | -19% | 0% | -11% | ||
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -3% | -8% | <=== | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/16/2026 (YTD)
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
No matter how good the numbers, stock investment is never a smooth ride. There is a risk you must factor in. Read CF Dip Buyer Analyses and NTR Dip Buyer Analyses to see how these stocks have fallen and recovered in the past.
Still not sure about NTR or CF? Consider the portfolio approach.
Portfolios Win When Stock Picks Fall Short
Individual stocks can soar or tank, but one thing matters: staying invested. The right portfolio can help you stay invested, capture upside, and mitigate the downside associated with any individual stock.
Why settle for average market returns? The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio invests in a diverse group of 30 stocks that have collectively delivered stronger upside with reduced volatility compared to the broader index. Discover the methodology behind these smoother, higher returns by checking the HQ Portfolio performance data.