How Will Norfolk Southern Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Norfolk Southern (NYSE:NSC) is scheduled to report its earnings on Thursday, October 22, 2026. The company has a market value of about $73.1 billion. Over the last twelve months it generated $12.5 billion in revenue and $4.6 billion in operating profit, with net income of $2.6 billion.
How the stock moves after the release will depend on how the results and outlook compare with expectations. What history can offer is the base rate: how often, and how far, the stock has moved after past reports. One caveat: Union Pacific has agreed to acquire Norfolk Southern, and a US regulator resumed its review of the deal in August. While that is pending, deal news may move the stock as much as the results.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks
Norfolk Southern’s Historical Odds Of A Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:
- There are 20 earnings releases in the last five years, with 9 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 45% of the time.
- Over the last three years that share rises to 50%, across 12 releases.
- The median of the 9 positive 1D returns is 2.9%, and the median of the 11 negative ones is -2.1%.
- The largest one-day reactions were 10.9% and -5.3%.
The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/23/2026 | 5.3% | 1.5% | 5.2% |
| 4/24/2026 | -0.5% | -1.7% | -1.7% |
| 1/29/2026 | 2.0% | 7.9% | 11.1% |
| 10/23/2025 | -1.2% | -0.8% | 1.4% |
| 7/29/2025 | -3.0% | -2.4% | -2.9% |
| 4/23/2025 | 0.9% | 1.5% | 9.5% |
| 1/29/2025 | 1.8% | 0.2% | -3.5% |
| 10/22/2024 | 4.9% | 2.2% | 5.2% |
| 7/25/2024 | 10.9% | 10.6% | 8.6% |
| 4/24/2024 | -3.6% | -6.0% | -5.3% |
| 1/26/2024 | -1.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% |
| 10/25/2023 | -5.3% | -2.8% | 9.8% |
| 7/27/2023 | -0.7% | -2.8% | -11.5% |
| 4/26/2023 | -2.9% | -1.6% | 2.5% |
| 1/25/2023 | -5.0% | -3.9% | -12.0% |
| 10/26/2022 | 2.9% | 6.6% | 17.0% |
| 7/27/2022 | -0.6% | 1.4% | 6.7% |
| 4/27/2022 | 3.1% | 0.6% | -8.2% |
| 1/26/2022 | -2.1% | -0.1% | -7.1% |
| 10/27/2021 | 0.1% | -0.3% | -2.8% |
| Statistic | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Positive | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 2.9% | 1.9% | 7.6% |
| Median Negative | -2.1% | -2.1% | -5.3% |
| Max Positive | 10.9% | 10.6% | 17.0% |
| Max Negative | -5.3% | -6.0% | -12.0% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D, And 21D Post-Earnings Returns
Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. None of these correlations is strong enough to trade on: all are below 0.40 in absolute terms over five years, so the early post-earnings move has not reliably predicted what followed.
| History | 1D vs next 5D | 1D vs next 21D | 5D vs next 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Years | -0.36 | -0.08 | 0.32 |
| 3 Years | -0.36 | -0.34 | 0.07 |
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