How Much Higher Can Newmont Stock Go From Here?
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Newmont (NEM) stock fell 10.0% from November 9 to November 12, 2026, closing at $112.64. Investors buying the dip are betting on a recovery. The company has faced many sharper drops since 2010, and its mines still produce strong cash, although management expects unit costs to rise in 2027. So how much higher has Newmont stock gone in the year after its past falls?
How Much Has Newmont Stock Gained After Past Falls?
The shares gained a median 5.0% in the year after a fall, but the actual results varied widely. Since 2010, Newmont stock has fallen more than 20% within 30 trading days 15 times. Of the 13 falls with a full year behind them, seven left the shares higher a year later. Performance over those single years ranged from a 29.0% loss to a 112.0% gain.
Investors chasing that gain usually had to endure a further decline first. Across all 13 falls, the stock’s lowest close in the following year was a median 20.1% below its price on the day of the fall. For the seven falls that ended higher, that median low was 12.1%. At its peak, the stock reached a median 19.5% above that price within the year. Taken on their own, the best days came a median 196 days, or about six and a half months, after the fall.
| Time after a past dip | Past dips with that much time after them | Median NEM price change |
|---|---|---|
| 21 trading days | 15 | 2.0% |
| 63 trading days | 15 | 1.0% |
| 126 trading days | 14 | -1.0% |
| 252 trading days | 13 | 5.0% |
| Dip date | Fall to dip date (NEM / SPY) | 1 year later | Best in that year (days to it) | Worst in that year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | -21.9% / -1.0% | – | – | – |
| 2026-03-26 | -20.1% / -7.0% | – | – | – |
| 2024-11-11 | -20.8% / 4.0% | 112.0% | 136.8% (339 days) | -12.1% |
| 2024-02-08 | -20.4% / 5.0% | 40.0% | 79.3% (257 days) | -10.4% |
| 2023-05-25 | -20.3% / 0.0% | 8.0% | 13.6% (361 days) | -24.3% |
| 2023-03-07 | -20.8% / -1.0% | -16.0% | 23.7% (29 days) | -26.9% |
| 2022-07-18 | -20.3% / -8.0% | -14.0% | 3.1% (191 days) | -30.1% |
| 2022-05-16 | -20.9% / -12.0% | -29.0% | 6.2% (9 days) | -41.0% |
| 2018-09-07 | -20.3% / 2.0% | 32.0% | 41.9% (362 days) | -1.7% |
| 2016-10-04 | -20.9% / -1.0% | 12.0% | 16.1% (338 days) | -9.6% |
| 2015-07-17 | -22.7% / 2.0% | 102.0% | 102.1% (367 days) | -24.7% |
| 2014-10-31 | -22.5% / 0.0% | 5.0% | 48.0% (196 days) | -16.7% |
| 2013-10-08 | -20.2% / 0.0% | -9.0% | 8.0% (14 days) | -20.1% |
| 2013-05-03 | -20.4% / 5.0% | -22.0% | 5.9% (34 days) | -35.0% |
| 2012-04-04 | -22.2% / 3.0% | -15.0% | 19.5% (163 days) | -18.7% |
| Median of 13 complete years | – | 5.0% | 19.5% (196 days) | -20.1% |
Is Newmont’s Cash Flow Still Holding Up?
Over twelve months, yes. Newmont generated $10.1 billion of free cash flow in the four quarters to September 30, 2026, against $6.12 billion a year earlier. Its operating margin over that period was 55.6%, the highest at any quarter end since the end of 2016. Even so, the stock trades at 12.8 times earnings, against 21.9 for the S&P 500.
A quarterly breakdown shows that the cash is slipping. Cash from operations fell as a share of revenue in each of the last three quarters, dropping from 53.1% in fiscal Q4 2025 to 43.5% in fiscal Q3 2026. Management said part of a working capital benefit from the second quarter reversed in the third.
Management also expects unit costs to rise in 2027, partly because silver output at Peñasquito is expected to be roughly 30% lower than in 2026. It expects development spending about $500 million higher in 2027 as well, mainly for the Red Chris project, subject to board approval.
What You Have To Believe To Buy Newmont Now
Buying now requires believing this latest drop will end like Newmont’s good years after a fall rather than its bad ones. Those outcomes arrived in clusters: all six falls that left the shares lower a year later occurred in two stretches, 2012 to 2013 and 2022 to early 2023. The two falls in March and June 2026 are too recent to judge over a full year, although the shares were 23.0% higher six months after the March fall.
Newmont’s past falls left the shares higher a little more often than not, and its twelve-month cash sits well above the level from a year earlier. Even so, a smaller share of each quarter’s sales is turning into cash. If that share keeps shrinking as costs rise in 2027, a buyer would be relying on the past falls alone, and nearly half of those ended lower a year later. Newmont’s cash from operations as a share of revenue is the number to watch in its fourth-quarter report, expected in February 2027. Management has already said fourth-quarter all-in sustaining costs will be the year’s highest, at $1.9 thousand per ounce.
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