Should You Buy Amcor Stock At This Price?
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Amcor (AMCR) stock trades at 18.6 times earnings, compared with 21.8 for the median S&P 500 company. Its shares returned 9.8% over the past twelve months, lagging the 12.2% return of the S&P 500. That discount could mean a good packaging business is on sale, or it could simply be a fair valuation for a company whose profits have not kept pace with its size. So what is a buyer getting for that lower multiple?
What Does Amcor Offer Buyers At Today’s Price?
Amcor’s dividend yield, based on the past twelve months of dividends, was 5.9% at the November 12, 2026 close. On the fiscal Q1 2027 call, management said the board had approved a modest increase in the quarterly dividend, to $0.66 per share. Profitability has held up as well: Amcor’s operating margin was 9.1% over the latest twelve months, up 0.3 points from a year earlier. Growth did slow in the latest quarter, with fiscal Q1 2027 revenue up 6.7%.
Has Amcor’s Bigger Business Paid Off Per Share?
Over three years, it has not. Amcor earned $2.33 per diluted share in the four fiscal quarters ended September 2026, down from $3.27 in the same four quarters three years earlier. During that same span, its diluted share count rose to 465 million from 288 million, spreading the higher earnings across many more shares. Per-share earnings did recover over the latest year, rising from $1.72 in the four quarters ended September 2025. These are reported figures. On management’s adjusted measure, Amcor earned $0.95 per share in the latest quarter, flat on the prior year at constant currency.
Revenue grew 37.3% over the latest twelve months, nearly double the 19.9% average across the last three twelve-month periods. The net margin rose to 4.5% from 3.3% a year before, but that only matches the average for those periods.
The bigger company also carries more debt. Total debt stood at $15.7 billion at the end of September 2026, up from $7.56 billion three years earlier. Over the latest twelve months, Amcor paid $1.2 billion in dividends, which exceeded the $0.772 billion of free cash flow it generated. Those are reasons the market may be right to apply a discount.
Amcor Is Counting On Savings And Lower Debt
Management expects to achieve most of its $650 million three-year synergy target, tied to the Berry integration, by the end of 2027. The company delivered $60 million of synergies in the September 2026 quarter, the first quarter of its transition period, in line with its expectations. The full $650 million would equal about 30% of Amcor’s reported operating income over the latest twelve months. Management also targets leverage of about 3 times by the end of calendar 2027, from 3.76 times at the end of fiscal Q1 2027.
The nearer bar has moved down, though. Management cut its adjusted EPS outlook for the current transition period, which covers the September and December quarters, to $1.70 to $1.80 per share, from $1.80 to $1.90, and said rising energy and distribution costs are creating a headwind in that period. For 2027, it expects double-digit growth in adjusted EPS.
So a buyer at today’s price is not betting that the market has overlooked a sound business. The bet is that management turns a much larger company into higher earnings per share, through those savings and lower debt. Amcor’s adjusted EPS and its leverage are the figures to watch when the company is expected to report in February 2027.
Beyond AMCR: A Systematic Way To Invest
Before you decide on AMCR, consider a better choice. Since its September 2020 launch, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P MidCap and Russell 2000, without betting on one stock.
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