Microsoft Stock Lost 7% In One Week, What To Expect?

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Microsoft stock (NASDAQ: MSFT) has lost 6.7% in the last week, underperforming the S&P 500 (up 1.2%). In addition, the same trend was observed over the last ten days (-8% vs 0.5%) and one month (-8.2% vs -1.5%). 

The technology sector witnessed a significant jump in demand during the Covid-19 crisis. However, the high growth rate slowed down in 2022. Further, the tough macroeconomic conditions added fuel to the woes. This led to a correction in technology stocks in 2022 – MSFT lost 22%. In addition, the recent drop in the MSFT stock price was impacted by a rating downgrade by UBS Group from buy to neutral.

Now, is Microsoft stock set to drop further, or could we expect some recovery? We believe that there is a 59% chance of a rise in Microsoft stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on Microsoft Stock Chance of Rise.

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Twenty-One Day: MSFT -8.2%, vs. S&P500 -1.5%; Underperformed market

(5% likelihood event; 59% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • Microsoft stock lost 8.2% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 1.5%
  • A change of -8.2% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 5% likelihood event, which has occurred 123 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 123 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 73 occasions
  • This points to a 59% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: MSFT -8%, vs. S&P500 0.5%; Underperformed market

(4% likelihood event; 73% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • Microsoft stock decreased 8% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) gain of 0.5%
  • A change of -8% or more over ten trading days is a 4% likelihood event, which has occurred 91 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
  • Of these 91 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 66 occasions
  • This points to a 73% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: MSFT -6.7%, vs. S&P500 1.2%; Underperformed market

(2% likelihood event; 69% probability of rise over next five days)

  • Microsoft stock decreased 6.7% over a five-day trading period ending 01/06/2023, compared to the broader market (S&P500) gain of 1.2%
  • A change of 6.7% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 2% likelihood event, which has occurred 61 times out of 2518 in the last ten years
  • Of these 61 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 42 occasions
  • This points to a 69% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Jan 2023
MTD [1]
2023
YTD [1]
2017-23
Total [2]
 MSFT Return -6% -6% 262%
 S&P 500 Return 1% 1% 74%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 2% 2% 222%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/9/2023
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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