Can Marvell Stock Hit $310?

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Data centers, and above all the custom chips designed for the biggest cloud computing companies, known as hyperscalers, matter most to whether Marvell (MRVL) stock can return to $310. The shares have been there before, closing at $316.28 on June 4, 2026. They closed at $218.34 on October 29, so getting back to $310 would take a rise of about 42%. You may still think of Marvell as a broad chip maker, but data centers are now its largest market, and that is what buyers appear to be betting on. Yet the stock fell 17.3% from September 30 to October 29, while the S&P 500 rose 0.96%. That is the contradiction. Most of that drop came on October 29 alone, when the shares fell 13.2% after Bloomberg reported that Marvell was in advanced talks to buy Lumentum in an expected all-stock deal. So how fast is Marvell’s data center business growing now?

Marvell Expects Its Data Center Growth To Speed Up

Data centers generated 79% of Marvell’s revenue in fiscal Q2 2027, the quarter that ended on August 1, 2026, with those sales growing 46% from a year earlier. For fiscal 2027 as a whole, management said in August it expects data center growth of about 60%, up from the roughly 50% it expected a quarter earlier.

Custom chips, which Marvell designs to a single customer’s order, are a growing part of that plan. Management expects the custom business to ramp significantly in the second half of fiscal 2027 and to more than double in fiscal 2028. At its October 6 investor day, Marvell raised its fiscal 2028 revenue outlook to about $20 billion and set a fiscal 2031 revenue target of $70 billion to $90 billion.

Marvell disclosed an expanded commercial agreement in August with a key hyperscaler, one of the largest buyers of custom chips. Management said revenue from that deal through fiscal 2028 is already in its targets, and that the biggest effect would come in fiscal 2029 and beyond. The hyperscaler deal therefore does not raise the custom growth management expects for fiscal 2028, mostly adding to the years after that.

Can Marvell Keep Margins Up As Custom Chips Grow?

So far it has. Marvell’s twelve-month gross margin was 52.2% in the period to August 1, 2026, up from 44.6% a year earlier, and its quarterly gross margin reached 53.1% in fiscal Q2 2027. This matters because buyers are paying 74.2 times earnings, against 22.8 for the S&P 500, meaning what Marvell keeps from each sale counts as much as how fast sales grow.

Management was candid about the pressure, stating on its August 27 call that it expects a gross margin headwind in fiscal Q3 2027 from the faster growth of custom chips. Its preliminary view is that gross margin in fiscal 2028 will stay in the same range as in the second half of fiscal 2027. For comparison, another chip maker, Broadcom, posted a gross margin of 68.8% over its latest four quarters, well above Marvell’s.

Is Marvell Stock Pricier Than Its P/E Suggests?

Yes. Marvell earned $2.64 billion over the twelve months to August 1, 2026, but $1.9 billion of it came in a single quarter, fiscal Q3 2026. Operating income for that quarter was far smaller at $0.367 billion, and no other quarter in that year came close to that profit. Combined, the other three quarters earned about $0.74 billion.

Based on operating cash flow, the stock looks pricier still: it is priced at 89.1 times, against 15.4 for the S&P 500. Marvell shares have also fallen far in past market shocks, dropping 55% in the 2025 tariff shock, against 19% for an S&P 500 fund.

Marvell’s data center business keeps beating what management expected a quarter earlier. Gross margin has risen, but it faces the custom chip ramp management flagged. A deal for Lumentum, valued at about $83 billion, would be paid in stock and dilute existing shareholders. Marvell is expected to report fiscal Q3 2027 in late 2026, and its quarterly gross margin, against the 53.1% it reported for fiscal Q2 2027, is the figure to watch.

How To Act On MRVL?

Not necessarily on Marvell Technology alone, if your goal is long-term wealth. Wealth is built by owning the companies that keep outperforming, the leaders of their industries, wherever they are. Here is one company from Marvell Technology’s own industry that has beaten it. Over the five years to October 2026, Advanced Micro Devices stock rose 371%, while Marvell Technology stock rose 225%.

Finding companies like these takes comparison across industries and sectors, and that is what the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio does. It holds 30 quality companies in equal weight and, since its inception in September 2020, has returned more than 105%, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap and Russell 2000. See how we find the leaders.

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