How Will Marvell Technology Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) is set to report its earnings on Thursday, August 27, 2026. The company has $212 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $8.7 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $1.4 billion in operating profits and net income of $2.5 billion. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Marvell Technology’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 8 positive and 11 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 42% of the time.
- Notably, this percentage increases to 45% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 8 positive returns = 13%, and median of the 11 negative returns = -8.0%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 5/27/2026 | 3.1% | 51.8% | 34.3% |
| 3/5/2026 | 18.4% | 15.8% | 44.7% |
| 12/2/2025 | 7.9% | -4.3% | -2.9% |
| 8/28/2025 | -18.6% | -18.0% | 6.7% |
| 5/6/2025 | -8.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% |
| 3/5/2025 | -19.8% | -22.5% | -38.3% |
| 12/3/2024 | 23.2% | 11.2% | 23.2% |
| 8/29/2024 | 9.2% | -5.2% | 3.3% |
| 5/30/2024 | -10.5% | -11.4% | -7.6% |
| 3/7/2024 | -11.4% | -22.3% | -15.5% |
| 11/30/2023 | -5.3% | -6.4% | 4.4% |
| 8/24/2023 | -6.6% | 1.7% | -8.1% |
| 5/25/2023 | 32.4% | 21.6% | 22.5% |
| 3/2/2023 | -4.7% | -11.5% | -6.3% |
| 12/1/2022 | -1.5% | -8.1% | -20.7% |
| 8/25/2022 | -8.9% | -16.6% | -22.7% |
| 5/26/2022 | 6.7% | 3.5% | -20.5% |
| 3/3/2022 | -2.7% | 0.1% | 9.0% |
| 12/2/2021 | 17.7% | 26.7% | 25.9% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 8 | 9 | 10 |
| # Negative | 11 | 10 | 9 |
| Median Positive | 13.4% | 11.2% | 15.7% |
| Median Negative | -8.0% | -11.4% | -15.5% |
| Max Positive | 32.4% | 51.8% | 44.7% |
| Max Negative | -19.8% | -22.5% | -38.3% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, 5D_21D shows the strongest correlation here, and it is negative: if the 5D post-earnings return is positive, a trader can position themselves in the opposite direction over the following 21D window. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that these correlations are between subsequent windows, not the cumulative columns above: 1D_5D is the correlation between the 1D post-earnings return and the subsequent return from day 1 through day 5, 1D_21D is between the 1D return and the subsequent return from day 1 through day 21, and 5D_21D is between the 5D return and the subsequent return from day 5 through day 21.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -8.3% | -1.5% | -10.8% |
| 3Y History | -3.8% | 7.5% | -9.3% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. Some of that pricing-in may even begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Marvell Technology stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Marvell Technology. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| MRVL Earnings Dates | MRVL | AMD | QCOM |
| 5/27/2026 | 3.1% | 18.6% | 15.1% |
| 3/5/2026 | 18.4% | N/A* | -8.5% |
| 12/2/2025 | 7.9% | 2.5% | -3.6% |
| 8/28/2025 | -18.6% | -6.4% | -7.7% |
| 5/6/2025 | -8.0% | N/A* | -8.9% |
| 3/5/2025 | -19.8% | -6.3% | -3.7% |
| 12/3/2024 | 23.2% | N/A* | -0.0% |
| 8/29/2024 | 9.2% | N/A* | -9.4% |
| 5/30/2024 | -10.5% | N/A* | 9.7% |
| 11/30/2023 | -5.3% | N/A* | 5.8% |
| 8/24/2023 | -6.6% | -7.0% | -8.2% |
| 5/25/2023 | 32.4% | -9.2% | -5.5% |
| 3/2/2023 | -4.7% | N/A* | -0.6% |
| 12/1/2022 | -1.5% | N/A* | -7.7% |
| 8/25/2022 | -8.9% | -1.2% | -4.5% |
| 5/26/2022 | 6.7% | 9.1% | 9.7% |
| 3/3/2022 | -2.7% | N/A* | -4.8% |
| 12/2/2021 | 17.7% | N/A* | 12.7% |
| CORRELATION | 12.2% | 10.2% | |
* N/A indicates no comparable post-earnings session for that peer in that quarter
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