Was The Run In Moderna Stock Hiding In Plain Sight?

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Moderna (MRNA) stock returned 677.7% in the twelve months starting October 24, 2025 and ending October 27, 2026, against 15.0% for the S&P 500. The company’s newer vaccines gained ground over the same stretch. Its next-generation COVID shot, mNEXSPIKE, took share in its first season, and the FDA approved Moderna’s flu vaccine in August 2026, the first approval of an mRNA flu shot. How much of that could a careful investor have seen before October 24, 2025?

What Did Moderna Say Before October 2025?

While Moderna said enough to point toward its newer vaccines, those early signs were faint. Management said on the fiscal Q4 2024 call, held February 14, 2025, that the company expected to better compete in the respiratory vaccine market. That expectation was not a result, but it pointed at the right products.

The clearer sign emerged on September 23, 2025, a month before the twelve months measured here began. Moderna released data showing the 2025-2026 formula of mNEXSPIKE produced more than a 16-fold rise in antibodies against the LP.8.1 variant it was designed for. An investor following that shot was following the product that went on to win share.

Yet the company’s results and its pipeline pointed the other way. Revenue in the quarter ended June 30, 2025 was $137 million, down 38.0% from a year earlier. Moderna ended work on its CMV vaccine on October 22, 2025, after the shot failed a late-stage trial. The shares offered no hint either, slipping 1.8% in the six months before October 24, 2025. Those early signs were real, but a reader had to pick one new shot out from falling sales and a failed trial.

Moderna Won Share And A Flu Approval

The newer COVID shot captured a real share of the business that still brings in almost all of Moderna’s money. Management said on the July 31, 2026 call that mNEXSPIKE took about 24% of the U.S. retail COVID vaccine market in its first season. Moderna’s COVID business made up 94.2% of its revenue in fiscal 2025. That COVID revenue still fell 41.3% from the year before, so the new shot’s share gain did not stop the COVID business from shrinking.

The FDA then approved Moderna’s flu vaccine for people aged 50 and older on August 5, 2026. The bigger jolt came later. The shares posted their largest one-day gain of those twelve months, 177%, on August 19, 2026, after Moderna and Merck said their personalized melanoma vaccine met its main goals in a late-stage trial. The twelve-month run was Moderna’s own. Over the same stretch, Pfizer returned 28.8% and Alnylam Pharmaceuticals lost 51.1%. The run also gave some ground late. The shares fell 17.6% on October 22, 2026, after reports that data from the melanoma trial had leaked. By the October 27, 2026 close, investors valued Moderna at 37.5 times its sales over the four quarters ended June 30, 2026, against 3.2 times for the S&P 500.

Are Moderna’s Sales Growing Again In 2026?

They are, though only slightly in the latest quarter. Revenue rose from a year earlier in both quarters of 2026 reported so far, reaching $143 million in the quarter ended June 30, up 4.4%.

Management expects revenue to grow up to 10% in 2026, driven by long-term strategic partnerships in the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia and supported by the continued growth of mNEXSPIKE. That guidance assumes no revenue from mCOMBRIAX, Moderna’s combined flu and COVID shot, which the company is preparing to launch in 2027. So the newer COVID shot, the clearest early sign, is still adding to sales by management’s account, while the combination shot has yet to add any.

Moderna is expected to report next in November 2026, and its revenue against the same quarter a year earlier is the figure to watch.

How To Act On MRNA?

Not necessarily on Moderna alone, if your goal is long-term wealth. Wealth is built by owning the companies that keep outperforming, the leaders of their industries, wherever they are. Here is one company from Moderna’s own industry that has beaten it. Over the five years to October 2026, Roivant Sciences stock rose 372%, while Moderna stock fell 39%.

Finding companies like these takes comparison across industries and sectors, and that is what the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio does. It holds 30 quality companies in equal weight and, since its inception in September 2020, has returned more than 105%, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap and Russell 2000. See how we find the leaders.

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