Moderna Stock Surges 23%, With A 7-Day Winning Spree
Moderna (MRNA) stock hit day 7 of a continuous streak of days with gains, with cumulative gains over this period amounting to a 23% return. The company has gained about $1.9 Bil in value over the last 7 days, with its current market capitalization at about $10 Bil. The stock remains 28.7% below its value at the end of 2024. This compares with year-to-date returns of 17.3% for the S&P 500.
Moderna’s recent streak reflects stellar Q3 earnings, with a $900M cash cost reduction and year-end cash guidance to $6.5B-$7B. Strong commercial execution with mNEXSPIKE and mRESVIA approvals also buoyed investor sentiment, signaling pipeline momentum.
What is the point? Momentum often precedes conviction. A multi-day win streak can signal growing investor confidence or spark follow-on buying. Tracking such trends can help you ride the strength, or prepare for a well-timed entry if momentum fades. Our take: There are several things to fear in MRNA stock given its overall Weak operating performance and financial condition. This isn’t appropriately reflected in the stock’s Moderate valuation which is why we think it is Unattractive (see Buy or Sell MRNA).
For quick background, MRNA develops mRNA-based therapeutics and vaccines for infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare, cardiovascular, and auto-immune diseases, with 44 programs including 26 clinical trials across seven modalities.
Comparing MRNA Stock Returns With The S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for MRNA stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | MRNA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | 2.1% | 0.2% |
| 7D (Current Streak) | 23.2% | 1.0% |
| 1M (21D) | 12.2% | 0.8% |
| 3M (63D) | 26.0% | 4.8% |
| YTD 2025 | -28.7% | 17.3% |
| 2024 | -58.2% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | -44.6% | 24.2% |
| 2022 | -29.3% | -19.4% |
However, big gains can follow sharp reversals – but how has MRNA behaved after prior drops? See MRNA Dip Buyer Analysis to learn more.
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 116 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 20 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 73 | 5 |
| 4D | 12 | 8 |
| 5D | 9 | 3 |
| 6D | 1 | 1 |
| 7D or more | 21 | 3 |
| Total >=3 D | 116 | 20 |
Key Financials for Moderna (MRNA)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $6.8 Bil | $3.2 Bil |
| Operating Income | $-4.2 Bil | $-3.9 Bil |
| Net Income | $-4.7 Bil | $-3.6 Bil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $137.0 Mil | $1.0 Bil |
| Operating Income | $-907.0 Mil | $-260.0 Mil |
| Net Income | $-825.0 Mil | $-200.0 Mil |
While MRNA stock looks attractive given its winning streak, investing in a single stock without detailed, thorough analysis can be risky. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.