How Will Altria Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Altria (NYSE:MO) is scheduled to report its earnings on Thursday, October 29, 2026. The company has a market value of about $122.7 billion. Over the last twelve months, it generated $20.4 billion in revenue and $12.3 billion in operating profit, with net income of $8.0 billion.
The reaction will turn on how the results and guidance land against expectations. Before the release, it helps to know how the stock has behaved after previous reports, and whether an early move has tended to carry on.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks
How Often Has Altria Stock Risen After Earnings?
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:
- There are 19 earnings releases in the last five years, with 10 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 53% of the time.
- Over the last three years that share rises to 55%, across 11 releases.
- The median of the 10 positive 1D returns is 2.7%, and the median of the 9 negative ones is -3.0%.
- The largest one-day reactions were 7.8% and -9.3%.
The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/30/2026 | -9.3% | -8.6% | -9.7% |
| 4/30/2026 | 6.5% | 2.9% | 2.0% |
| 1/29/2026 | -5.3% | 3.2% | 9.4% |
| 10/30/2025 | -7.8% | -7.8% | -4.8% |
| 7/30/2025 | 3.6% | 5.3% | 11.9% |
| 4/29/2025 | 1.0% | 2.9% | 2.2% |
| 1/30/2025 | -2.1% | -0.2% | 6.1% |
| 10/31/2024 | 7.8% | 7.5% | 14.3% |
| 7/31/2024 | -3.0% | -2.1% | 5.3% |
| 4/25/2024 | 1.4% | 2.1% | 6.3% |
| 2/1/2024 | 4.0% | 0.3% | 1.8% |
| 10/26/2023 | -8.3% | -6.8% | -3.2% |
| 8/1/2023 | -0.5% | -2.9% | -2.6% |
| 4/27/2023 | 1.1% | -0.3% | -4.3% |
| 2/1/2023 | 5.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% |
| 10/27/2022 | -1.9% | -3.2% | -3.4% |
| 7/28/2022 | -0.2% | 0.4% | 5.3% |
| 4/28/2022 | 0.5% | 2.7% | -0.8% |
| 1/27/2022 | 1.8% | 2.1% | 4.1% |
| Statistic | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Positive | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| # Negative | 9 | 8 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 2.7% | 2.9% | 5.3% |
| Median Negative | -3.0% | -3.0% | -3.4% |
| Max Positive | 7.8% | 7.5% | 14.3% |
| Max Negative | -9.3% | -8.6% | -9.7% |
Does The First Move Carry On?
Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. The strongest relationship over five years is between the 1D and the following 5 days, at -0.52 across 19 releases: the early move has tended to partly reverse. That is a tendency, not a rule, and it can break on any given report.
| History | 1D vs next 5D | 1D vs next 21D | 5D vs next 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Years | -0.52 | -0.39 | -0.02 |
| 3 Years | -0.48 | -0.37 | 0.18 |
Do Peers That Report First Offer A Clue?
Philip Morris International (PM) and Constellation Brands (STZ) usually report about 8 to 22 days before Altria, and have already reported this season: PM shares fell 1.2% on its October 21 report, and STZ shares rose 2.4% the day after its October 6 report. The table compares each peer’s one-day reaction to its own earnings with Altria’s one-day reaction to the report that followed. The correlations are PM (0.38), STZ (0.08); the closer to 1, the more the peer’s reaction has foreshadowed Altria’s.
| MO Earnings Date | MO 1D | PM 1D | STZ 1D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7/30/2026 | -9.3% | 3.3% | n/a |
| 4/30/2026 | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.5% |
| 1/29/2026 | -5.3% | n/a | 5.3% |
| 10/30/2025 | -7.8% | -3.8% | 1.0% |
| 7/30/2025 | 3.6% | -8.4% | 4.5% |
| 4/29/2025 | 1.0% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| 1/30/2025 | -2.1% | n/a | -17.1% |
| 10/31/2024 | 7.8% | 10.5% | -4.7% |
| 7/31/2024 | -3.0% | 2.2% | -3.3% |
| 4/25/2024 | 1.4% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| 2/1/2024 | 4.0% | n/a | 2.1% |
| 10/26/2023 | -8.3% | -2.7% | -3.2% |
| 8/1/2023 | -0.5% | -0.6% | n/a |
| 4/27/2023 | 1.1% | -4.7% | 1.4% |
| 2/1/2023 | 5.6% | n/a | -9.7% |
| 10/27/2022 | -1.9% | -1.7% | -1.5% |
| 7/28/2022 | -0.2% | 4.2% | -4.3% |
| 4/28/2022 | 0.5% | 2.0% | 4.6% |
| 1/27/2022 | 1.8% | n/a | -3.4% |
| Correlation | – | 0.38 | 0.08 |
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