One Unsettled Question Sits Under Meta’s Muse Bet
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Shareholders of Meta Platforms (META) own a business whose ad revenue grew 26% in the third quarter of 2026, and the company is now building a second one. More than 10 million people in the US and Canada have set up Muse, its AI personal agent. But Muse is expensive to run, and Meta has only started working on how it will make money. Meta has not yet shown whether Muse will earn more than it costs to run.
Meta Is Paying For Muse Before It Earns Much From It
Muse’s total running costs are set to rise as more people use it. Management has said expanding the user base will require significant investment because of how much computing Muse needs, and it expects total serving costs to rise. That cost is also partly why Meta has not launched Muse globally yet, management said.
Analysts asked about Muse on the company’s third-quarter 2026 call on October 21, including whether Meta would charge for it sooner than usual given what it costs.
Can Meta’s Cash Flow Cover The Spending?
Meta’s free cash flow, the cash left after capital spending, was $28.6 billion over the twelve months to September 30, 2026, down from $44.8 billion a year earlier. So Meta’s cash flow still covers its capital spending over a full year, but it did not in the third quarter alone, when free cash flow was negative $1.16 billion against $11.2 billion a year before.
The spending is still rising. Meta raised its 2026 capital spending outlook to $140 billion at the midpoint, from $138 billion in July.
What Has Meta Said About Paying For Muse?
Management has said it plans to make Muse cheaper to run and to start making money from it. Meta expects to improve Muse’s cost efficiency by more than 10 times within a year, which management said will let Muse turn a profit once its revenue lines are at scale. Management also said Meta will work on making money from Muse sooner than its normal playbook, because of the size of both the cost and the opportunity.
The plan is for most people to use Muse free, with Meta earning a fee on the purchases it helps arrange. Shopping is already the most common use: more than 25% of Muse users shop through it, with an average purchase of over $200.
Management has not put a figure on Muse’s costs or on 2027. It said it has no specific numbers to share on what Muse costs to run today, and nothing more specific on 2027 until its fourth-quarter call, where it typically gives its annual outlook.
Meta’s cash flow pays for its spending over a full year, so the open question is how much Muse adds to that bill. Meta’s 2027 spending outlook, expected with its fourth-quarter report in January 2027, is the next number to watch. It will cover all of Meta, not Muse alone, since management has shared no Muse cost figures.
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