Meta Platforms Stock Outperformed S&P500 Last Week, What To Expect?

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META: Meta Platforms logo
META
Meta Platforms

Meta Platforms’ stock (NASDAQ: META) has lost 0.9% in the last week, outperforming the S&P 500 (down 3.2%). Further, the same trend was observed over the last ten days (-4.5% vs -7.1%). 

The social media giant posted weak results in the second quarter of 2022. It reported a marginal decline in net revenues to $28.8 billion, mainly due to a drop in advertising revenues. Further, it provided revenue guidance of $26 – $28.5 billion for Q3, lower than the previous year’s figure. That said, the company is taking several measures to boost its business. It recently announced a partnership with JioMart in India, which will allow users to do online shopping using WhatsApp. In addition to this, the recent media reports suggest that Meta is exploring new paid features for its family of social media apps. These updates were the main reason behind the stock movement.

Now, is META stock set to drop further, or could we expect some recovery? We believe that there is a 60% chance of a rise in META stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on Meta Platforms’ Stock Chance of Rise.

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Twenty-One Day: META -6%, vs. S&P500 -5.3%; Underperformed market

(16% likelihood event; 60% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • Meta Platforms stock lost 6% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) decrease of 5.3%
  • A change of -6% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 16% likelihood event, which has occurred 397 times out of 2508 in the last ten years
  • Of these 397 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 240 occasions
  • This points to a 60% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: META -4.5%, vs. S&P500 -7.1%; Outperformed market

(15% likelihood event; 59% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • Meta Platforms stock decreased 4.5% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) loss of 7.1%
  • A change of -4.5% or more over ten trading days is a 15% likelihood event, which has occurred 364 times out of 2508 in the last ten years
  • Of these 364 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 214 occasions
  • This points to a 59% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: META -0.9%, vs. S&P500 -3.2%; Outperformed market

(33% likelihood event; 59% probability of rise over next five days)

  • Meta Platforms stock lost 0.9% over a five-day trading period ending 09/02/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) drop of 3.2%
  • A change of -0.9% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 33% likelihood event, which has occurred 821 times out of 2508 in the last ten years
  • Of these 821 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 486 occasions
  • This points to a 59% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Sep 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 META Return -2% -52% 39%
 S&P 500 Return -1% -18% 75%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio -2% -17% 228%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 9/5/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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