How Will MetLife Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
MetLife (NYSE:MET) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. The company has $52 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $76 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $4.7 Bil in operating profits and net income of $3.4 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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MetLife’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 6 positive and 14 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 30% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 27% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 6 positive returns = 1.3%, and median of the 14 negative returns = -2.2%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/4/2026 | -3.4% | 1.1% | -7.9% |
| 11/5/2025 | -3.4% | 1.9% | -0.8% |
| 8/6/2025 | -2.8% | 1.9% | 4.7% |
| 4/30/2025 | 0.5% | 2.6% | 5.0% |
| 2/5/2025 | -1.6% | -2.7% | -3.2% |
| 10/30/2024 | -5.7% | 0.8% | 6.8% |
| 7/31/2024 | -1.4% | -9.8% | 0.7% |
| 5/1/2024 | -2.3% | 0.5% | 1.5% |
| 1/31/2024 | -5.7% | -2.6% | 1.4% |
| 11/1/2023 | 0.1% | -0.2% | 7.2% |
| 8/2/2023 | 2.7% | 0.6% | 1.8% |
| 5/3/2023 | -7.8% | -10.9% | -8.9% |
| 2/7/2023 | -0.0% | 1.1% | -9.2% |
| 11/2/2022 | -0.6% | -0.4% | 5.2% |
| 8/3/2022 | 0.3% | 4.5% | 2.8% |
| 5/9/2022 | -1.3% | -3.1% | 2.4% |
| 2/2/2022 | -1.2% | 3.5% | -6.0% |
| 11/3/2021 | -2.1% | -2.2% | -8.3% |
| 8/9/2021 | 2.1% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| 5/5/2021 | 2.4% | -2.3% | 2.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 6 | 11 | 13 |
| # Negative | 14 | 9 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% |
| Median Negative | -2.2% | -2.6% | -7.9% |
| Max Positive | 2.7% | 4.5% | 7.2% |
| Max Negative | -7.8% | -10.9% | -9.2% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | -12.9% | -19.7% | -28.9% |
| 3Y History | -48.1% | -27.1% | -29.9% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of MetLife stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before MetLife. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MET Earnings Dates | MET | PRU | AIG | AFL | PFG |
| 2/4/2026 | -3.4% | -4.7% | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* |
| 11/5/2025 | -3.4% | 3.2% | -5.4% | 2.2% | 2.0% |
| 8/6/2025 | -2.8% | 2.3% | N/A* | 3.4% | -4.5% |
| 4/30/2025 | 0.5% | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* | -1.1% |
| 2/5/2025 | -1.6% | -5.0% | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* |
| 10/30/2024 | -5.7% | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* | -5.8% |
| 7/31/2024 | -1.4% | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* | -3.4% |
| 5/1/2024 | -2.3% | 1.6% | N/A* | N/A* | -1.5% |
| 11/1/2023 | 0.1% | N/A* | N/A* | N/A* | -1.6% |
| 8/2/2023 | 2.7% | -1.1% | 1.5% | 5.7% | -5.7% |
| 5/3/2023 | -7.8% | -2.6% | N/A* | -3.0% | -6.1% |
| 2/7/2023 | -0.0% | N/A* | N/A* | -4.5% | -0.7% |
| 11/2/2022 | -0.6% | -0.7% | 0.4% | 2.4% | 6.0% |
| 8/3/2022 | 0.3% | -1.2% | N/A* | 4.1% | N/A* |
| 5/9/2022 | -1.3% | -4.2% | 0.1% | -5.4% | -2.3% |
| 11/3/2021 | -2.1% | 2.5% | N/A* | 0.1% | -0.5% |
| 8/9/2021 | 2.1% | 2.6% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 3.8% |
| CORRELATION | 34.7% | 47.2% | -22.2% | -3.4% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after MET
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