MAR Hits Key Support – Is This The Buying Opportunity?
Marriott International (MAR) should be on your watchlist. Here is why – it is currently trading in the support zone ($260.13 – $287.51), levels from which it has bounced meaningfully before. In the last 10 years, the stock received buying interest at this level 4 times and subsequently went on to generate 10.2% in average peak returns.
| Peak Return | Days to Peak Return | |
|---|---|---|
| 9/27/2024 | 9.7% | 41 |
| 11/7/2024 | 5.6% | 29 |
| 1/7/2025 | 12.9% | 34 |
| 5/6/2025 | 12.6% | 69 |
But is the price action enough alone? It certainly helps if the fundamentals check out. For MAR Read Buy or Sell MAR Stock to see how convincing this buy opportunity might be.
Here are some quick data points:
- Revenue Growth: 5.1% LTM and 13.2% last 3 year average.
- Cash Generation: Nearly 6.5% free cash flow margin and 15.4% operating margin LTM.
- Recent Revenue Shocks: The minimum annual revenue growth in last 3 years for MAR was 5.4%.
- Valuation: MAR trades at a PE multiple of 30.4
- Opportunity vs S&P: Compared to S&P, you get higher valuation, higher 3 year average revenue growth, and lower margins
Marriott International operates, franchises, and licenses nearly 8,000 hotel, residential, and timeshare properties across 30 brands in 139 countries worldwide.
| MAR | S&P Median | |
|---|---|---|
| Sector | Consumer Discretionary | – |
| Industry | Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | – |
| PE Ratio | 30.4 | 24.0 |
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| LTM* Revenue Growth | 5.1% | 5.1% |
| 3Y Average Annual Revenue Growth | 13.2% | 5.2% |
| Min Annual Revenue Growth Last 3Y | 5.4% | -0.3% |
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| LTM* Operating Margin | 15.4% | 18.7% |
| 3Y Average Operating Margin | 16.4% | 17.8% |
| LTM* Free Cash Flow Margin | 6.5% | 13.0% |
*LTM: Last Twelve Months
That is one way to look at stocks. Trefis High Quality Portfolio evaluates much more, and is designed to reduce stock-specific risk while giving upside exposure
What Is Stock-Specific Risk If The Market Crashes?
That said, MAR isn’t immune to big drops. It fell about 42% in the Dot-Com crash and nearly 76% during the Global Financial Crisis. The Covid selloff wiped out around 61%, while the 2018 correction and the recent inflation shock both pushed it down close to 30%. Solid fundamentals matter, but when fear hits, even strong stocks take a hit.
But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are in good shape – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read MAR Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.
The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.