Now is not the time to buy Marriott International stock

We believe there are a few things to fear in MAR stock given its overall Moderate operating performance and financial condition. But keeping in mind its High valuation, we think that the stock is Unattractive. Here is our multi-factor assessment.

But no matter how attractive, investing in a single stock carries high risk. Trefis High Quality Portfolio and is designed to reduce stock-specific risk while giving upside exposure

Let’s get into details of each of the assessed factors but before that, for quick background: With $73 Bil in market cap, Marriott International operates and franchises global hotel, residential, and timeshare properties across 139 countries with nearly 8,000 locations under 30 brands in U.S., Canada, and international markets.

[1] Valuation Looks High

This table highlights how MAR is valued vs broader market. For more details see: MAR Valuation Ratios

[2] Growth Is Moderate

• Marriott International has seen its top line grow at an average rate of 13.2% over the last 3 years
• Its revenues have grown 5.1% from $24 Bil to $26 Bil in the last 12 months
• Also, its quarterly revenues grew 4.7% to $6.7 Bil in the most recent quarter from $6.4 Bil a year ago.

This table highlights how MAR is growing vs broader market. For more details see: MAR Revenue Comparison

[3] Profitability Appears Weak

• MAR last 12 month operating income was $4.0 Bil representing operating margin of 15.4%
• With cash flow margin of 9.7%, it generated nearly $2.5 Bil in operating cash flow over this period
• For the same period, MAR generated nearly $2.5 Bil in net income, suggesting net margin of about 9.6%

This table highlights how MAR profitability vs broader market. For more details see: MAR Operating Income Comparison

[4] Financial Stability Looks Strong

• MAR Debt was $17 Bil at the end of the most recent quarter, while its current Market Cap is $73 Bil. This implies Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 22.6%
• MAR Cash (including cash equivalents) makes up $671 Mil of $27 Bil in total Assets. This yields a Cash-to-Assets Ratio of 2.5%

[4] Downturn Resilience Is Weak

MAR has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns. We assess this based on both (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered.

2022 Inflation Shock

• MAR stock fell 30.1% from a high of $190.30 on 20 April 2022 to $133.06 on 23 June 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 10 July 2023
• Since then, the stock increased to a high of $304.45 on 10 February 2025 , and currently trades at $266.26

 
2020 Covid Pandemic

• MAR stock fell 61.0% from a high of $151.49 on 2 January 2020 to $59.08 on 3 April 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 24 February 2021

 
2008 Global Financial Crisis

• MAR stock fell 75.9% from a high of $51.87 on 18 April 2007 to $12.49 on 20 November 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
• However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 21 February 2014

But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, outlook changes. Read MAR Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 – S&P 500, Russell, and S&P midcap. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.