Why Has LivePerson Stock Swooned More Than 30% In A Month

LPSN: LivePerson logo
LPSN
LivePerson

LivePerson Inc stock (NASDAQ: LPSN) dropped 14% in just the last one week, completely underperforming the S&P 500 which was down only 1%. If you look at the change in the stock over the last ten days and one month, LPSN stock has declined (-21% and -31%, respectively) and underperformed the broader market on both the occasions. LivePerson Inc. is a global technology company that develops conversational commerce and AI software. The drop in LPSN stock was mainly due to TheStreet downgrading the company from a “C-“ rating to a “D+” rating. Simultaneously, a couple of other research firms and analysts have also dropped their price estimate for LPSN stock. Analysts expect the company to report a loss of $1.60 per share in the current fiscal year. Also, recently the company’s CFO off loaded stock worth $31,482. Both the downgrade as well as selling of stock by insiders have led to negative sentiment about the stock over recent weeks.

Now, is LPSN stock set to drop further or could we expect some recovery? We believe that there is a 72% chance of a rise in LPSN stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on LPSN Stock Chance of Rise. To see how LPSN stands in comparison to its peers, see our analysis on LivePerson vs Rambus.

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Twenty-One Day: LPSN -31%, vs. S&P500 -2.4%; Underperformed market

(1% likelihood event; 72% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • LPSN stock decreased 31% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 2.4%
  • A change of -31% or more over twenty-one trading days is an extremely rare event with a 1% likelihood, which has occurred 25 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 25 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 18 occasions
  • This points to a 72% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: LPSN -21%, vs. S&P500 -3.5%; Underperformed market

(2% likelihood event; 47% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • LPSN stock decreased 21% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) drop of 3.5%
  • A change of -21% or more over ten trading days is an extremely rare event with 2% likelihood, which has occurred 49 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 49 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 23 occasions
  • This points to a 47% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: LPSN -14%, vs. S&P500 -1.2%; Underperformed market

(2% likelihood event; 45% probability of rise over next five days)

  • LPSN stock decreased 14% over a five-day trading period ending 12/03/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) drop of 1.2%
  • A change of -14% or more over five trading days (one week) is an extremely rare event with 2% likelihood, which has occurred 51 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
  • Of these 51 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 23 occasions
  • This points to a 45% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Dec 2021
MTD [1]
2021
YTD [1]
2017-21
Total [2]
 LPSN Return -31% -45% 354%
 S&P 500 Return -2% 21% 103%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return -3% 40% 283%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/4/2021
[2] Cumulative total returns since 2017

Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios

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