Kennametal Stock (+8.3%): Tungsten Surge Fuels Analyst Re-Rate

Kennametal (KMT) ripped +8.3% on heavy volume, catalyzed by a Jefferies upgrade to ‘Buy’ with a $40 price target, citing a massive spike in tungsten prices. The move was sharp and aggressive, pushing the stock to a new 52-week high. But with the street largely holding a ‘Neutral’ stance just a day prior, is this a genuine fundamental re-rating or just a chase for a commodity tailwind?

The narrative of a fundamental shift is strongly supported by the dramatic increase in tungsten prices, a key input for Kennametal’s products. This isn’t just a minor fluctuation; it’s a significant tailwind to their margin structure.

• Jefferies highlighted an unprecedented 190% year-over-year surge in tungsten prices as the primary catalyst.
• This price spike is expected to significantly boost Kennametal’s near-term earnings and margins.
• The company had already posted a strong first-quarter fiscal 2026, beating earnings and revenue expectations.

Trade Mechanics & Money Flow

Trade Mechanics: What Happened?

The move was characterized by a significant increase in volume, suggesting a high level of conviction from buyers. While specific options data for the day is limited, the aggressive price action points to a demand for upside exposure.

• Trading volume on January 13, 2026, was approximately 1,023,087 shares, a notable increase over the average.
• The most recent short interest data from December 15, 2025, showed 3.79% of the float short, not excessively high.
• The stock’s RSI-14 moved into overbought territory at 71.06, indicating strong momentum.

How Is The Money Flowing?

The aggressive buying and the reaction to a specific analyst note suggest that this was likely driven by institutional players re-positioning their portfolios. The move was too significant and sustained to be solely retail-driven.

• The stock broke through its previous 52-week high of $31.35, a key psychological level.
• High institutional ownership at over 104% suggests that fund managers are the primary drivers of price.
• The Jefferies upgrade likely triggered buy programs from other institutions that follow their research.

Understanding trade mechanics, money flow, and price behavior can give you and edge. See more.

What Next?

FOLLOW. The surge in tungsten prices provides a tangible near-term catalyst for margin expansion. While the move was sharp, the fundamental underpinning is legitimate. The next level to watch is the $35-$36 zone. This area represents a potential resistance level from previous years’ highs and would confirm a breakout from its multi-year consolidation. A hold above this level would signal a true re-rate and the potential for a sustained uptrend.

That’s for now, but so much more goes into evaluating a stock from long-term investment perspective. We make it easy with our Investment Highlights

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