How Far Can JOBY Stock Fall While Its Guidance Goes Up?

Joby Aviation (JOBY) trades near $6.82, after falling 49% over the past twelve months while the S&P 500 returned 20.5%. The company raised its full-year revenue outlook and the shares kept sliding. The market is repricing the bill that comes before the first paying passenger in one of its own aircraft.

Joby Aviation Is Spending Faster Than It Is Selling

Blade, the passenger network Joby bought about a year ago, sold over 50% more seats in the second quarter of 2026 than a year earlier, and management says the constraint on many routes is now aircraft availability rather than passenger demand. Revenue in that quarter was $39 million. The full-year 2026 guide went up to $115 million to $125 million, and the stock fell on the report anyway.

The spending is the other half. Management guided second-half 2026 cash use to $385 million to $415 million, above the $365 million used in the first half of 2026 excluding a one-time facility purchase. Joby has also agreed to buy the defense technology firm Resonant Sciences for about $500 million, roughly four times its whole full-year revenue guide. Against that sits $2.3 billion of cash and short-term investments at the end of the second quarter.

Is Joby Aviation A Worse Business Than It Was?

On the operating numbers, no. Revenue growth is accelerating against its own three-year average, and the trailing-twelve-month operating margin, still deeply negative at -759%, is its best in three years. Its first FAA conforming aircraft is flying, 12 more are in production, and management says the manufacturing nonconformance rate fell by nearly 40% over the first six months of 2026.

So the business is not what broke. The first paying passenger in one of its own aircraft is still ahead of it. The price rests on type certification and on the Dallas-Fort Worth routes it plans to fly under a federal program that runs alongside that work.

Could You Lose Half Again From Here?

History says yes. Across the five market shocks it has traded through since 2020, it fell an average of 27% peak to trough against 13% for the S&P 500. Its deepest was the 51% drop during the 2022 Inflation Shock and Fed Tightening, against 24% for the index.

A 51% fall on a position worth a tenth of your portfolio costs about 5% of everything you own. The clock is kinder. The stock has taken a median of about four months to climb back from the low, though the 2022 fall took about 16 months.

One number keeps that history honest. Its worst fall since listing is about 80%, from a 2021 peak to a 2022 trough, deeper than anything a market shock has done to it. Measured from its 52-week high, the fall it is already in runs about 65%. So whether this is an entry or a warning is a question about the business, not the price.

Can You Hold A Company Whose Own Aircraft Have Yet To Carry A Paying Passenger?

Easy to answer while you are reading. Harder in the month it happens. How much of your money sits in this one name, and would you be adding at the low or selling into it?

Almost nobody settles that one holding at a time. That is the job our rule-based High Quality Portfolio does.

Or if the fall itself is what tempts you, our Dip Buyer’s Playbook ranks the fallen names whose businesses can carry them back. Being down is no evidence of coming back. The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has a track record of outpacing the three major indices.