Can You Stomach Joby Aviation Stock’s Shocks?

This electric air taxi pioneer has made visible progress, but its history in market downturns poses a stark question for shareholders.

Joby Aviation (JOBY) stock fell 8.1% on July 24th, a sharp move for a company that has been making tangible progress. It is developing electric air taxis for commercial passenger service, and the market is weighing its recent selection for the White House-backed eIPP program, which paves the way for operations in 11 states. Management noted on its latest call that the company is now producing parts for its ninth conforming aircraft, a sign of a serious manufacturing ramp-up. This forward momentum makes the question of downside risk all the more urgent for shareholders.

That single-day drop, however, is a minor tremor compared to how this stock has behaved during true, market-wide shocks. The real question for any holder, especially one tempted by the recent dip, is how far this stock falls when the entire market sells off, and whether you have the conviction to ride that out.

A 51% Plunge In The 2022 Inflation Shock

When the broad market falls, Joby Aviation stock has historically fallen further. Across the 5 major market shocks it has traded through, the stock fell an average of 27% from peak to trough, while the S&P 500 fell about 13% over the same periods. This amplified downside is the risk you carry. Its deepest drawdown was a steep 51% plunge during the 2022 Inflation Shock & a period of monetary tightening. The stock has been hit particularly hard during rate-driven selloffs, including that 2022 event and the Summer-Fall 2023 5% Yield Shock. These are not abstract risks, but recallable periods of market stress where this stock lost significant value.

A 17-Month Climb Back To Even

Surviving the fall is one thing; waiting for the recovery is another. Of the shocks it has fully recovered from, Joby Aviation took a median of about 4 months to climb back to its pre-shock high. But patience has been required. The slowest full recovery followed the 2022 Inflation Shock and a period of monetary tightening, which took about 17 months to reclaim the prior high. That is a long time to be underwater on a position. A rapid past recovery is a data point, not a promise for the future.

Every Major Shock Joby Aviation Has Traded Through

Peak-to-trough drawdown in each shock, and how long the stock took to reclaim its pre-shock high. Stock vs. the S&P 500, long-duration bonds, and its sector.

[1] 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening: 9.1% CPI forced aggressive rate hikes, crushing both stocks and bonds simultaneously.
[2] 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis: SVB’s rate-driven bond losses triggered a social-media bank run, seized by FDIC.
[3] Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock: Strong economic data pushed 10-year yields to 5%, compressing yield-sensitive sector valuations.
[4] 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind: BOJ rate hike unwound yen carry trades, briefly crashing tech stocks globally.
[5] 2025 US Tariff Shock: 145% China tariffs crashed equities and the dollar on supply chain disruption fears.

From Test Flights To The eIPP Program

Is the company that endured those past shocks the same one that exists today? In some ways, it is stronger. Joby ended its first quarter with approximately $2.5 billion in cash and has clear operational momentum, from successful demonstration flights in New York to its key role in the eIPP program. Yet, the fundamental investment case still hinges on future execution. Analyst questions on the last call highlighted potential bottlenecks in manufacturing and the multi-stage process remaining for full FAA certification. While the company is more mature, its pre-revenue, high-growth profile means the historical pattern of amplified downside in market shocks likely still applies. We recently explored the question of whether the stock is flying high or is simply overpriced.

A 5% Hit To Your Entire Portfolio

That deepest 51% drawdown would have a real portfolio impact. On a position sized at 10% of a portfolio, it would have cut about 5% from your entire portfolio’s value. At a 20% position weight, that becomes a 10% hit. This is the risk you are carrying right now. The one lever you fully control is not the market’s mood or the timing of the next shock, but your own exposure, how much of your capital is tied to a single, high-potential but volatile name.

How Much Downside Is Hiding In The Rest Of Your Portfolio?

You have just seen, in hard numbers, how far Joby Aviation has fallen when markets break, and how long it took to climb back. The natural next question is how much the rest of what you own could fall, and the options market puts a forward number on exactly that: the expected move it prices in for each stock over the year ahead. Our Expected Move screen ranks which S&P 500 names carry the widest priced-in swings, so you can see whether your other holdings are sitting on more downside than you have accounted for.

JOBY Has Fallen 76% From A Peak

The piece above put a number on how far this stock could fall, and a number like that matters most to whoever holds too much of one name. JOBY itself has fallen 76% from a peak within the past five years, and a fall like that lands very differently when one position carries too much of your wealth. Knowing what a repeat would do to your net worth is exactly what the Trefis Wealth team computes, with the same rules-based systematic discipline that runs our High Quality Portfolio. Request a free vulnerability audit of your biggest positions.