[Updated: Dec 9, 2021] ISRG Stock Update
The stock price of Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG) has seen a rise of over 6% over the last five trading days. However, despite the recent rise it is still down 7% over the last one month period. The fall earlier was led by concerns over the new Covid-19 variant – Omicron – and its impact on the overall economic growth, and the healthcare sector. However, over the recent days, some reports have emerged stating that the impact of Omicron on the overall economic growth may not be as profound as earlier anticipated.  This resulted in a rebound in the broader markets, including ISRG stock. In fact, in our previous update (below) we stated that the stock has a higher chance of a rise in the near term, based on ISRG’s own historical performance.
Looking forward, there is only a little room left for growth in ISRG stock, in our view. Going by our Intuitive Surgical Valuation of $361 per share, based on expected earnings of $5.00 on a per share and adjusted basis and a P/E ratio of 72x (compares with 81x earnings multiple for ISRG seen as recently as late 2020), there is only a 6% upside potential from its current levels of $341. In fact, the $357 estimate as per average of analyst forecasts, reflects an even lower <5% upside from the current levels, pointing out that ISRG stock is nearly fully valued currently, and investors may be better off waiting for another dip for better gains in the long term.
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But what about the near term, given that ISRG stock has seen a fall of 7% in a month? Going by its historical performance, there is still a good chance of a rise in ISRG stock over the next month. Out of 248 instances in the last ten years that ISRG stock saw a twenty-one day fall of 7% or more, 161 of them resulted in ISRG stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 161 out of 248, or about a 65% chance of a rise in ISRG stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Intuitive Surgical Stock Chances of Rise for more details.
[Updated: Nov 29, 2021] ISRG Stock Decline
The stock price of Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG), a fast growing robotic surgical devices company, has seen a 7% fall in a month, while it was down nearly 6% just last week. This can largely be attributed to a broader sell-off in the markets with the S&P500 falling over 2% following the reports of a new variant of the Covid-19 – Omicron – which has 32 mutations in the spike protein – the part of the virus that Covid-19 vaccines target. WHO declared Omicron to be a variant of concern. Overall, the markets were looking forward to the ramp up in demand and opening up of economies, but now, there are looming concerns of more restrictions. In fact, many countries in Europe are now looking at increased restrictions, and Austria is going with a partial lockdown since last week, and moving forward with a vaccine mandate.
Looking at Intuitive Surgical, a rise in the number of Covid-19 cases means more pressure on healthcare institutions, especially in certain geographies with limited resources. This will likely impact the total procedure volume, a trend seen in the recent past as well, with the spread of the Delta variant.
But now that ISRG stock has fallen 7% in a month, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a higher chance of a rise in ISRG stock over the next month. Out of 248 instances in the last ten years that ISRG stock saw a twenty-one day fall of 7% or more, 161 of them resulted in ISRG stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 161 out of 248, or about a 65% chance of a rise in ISRG stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Intuitive Surgical Stock Chances of Rise for more details.
So, if this follows the historical pattern, ISRG stock is likely to see higher levels. That said, the move in ISRG stock will also depend on the trend in U.S. Covid-19 cases. If the Omicron results in another large spike in total number of Covid-19 cases, it is likely that ISRG stock will actually see even lower levels, along with some of the other medical devices companies, as well.
Wondering how Intuitive Surgical’s peers stack up? Check out Intuitive Surgical Stock Comparison With Peers to see how ISRG stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You can find more such useful comparisons on Peer Comparisons.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last ten years data
- After moving -5.6% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 55% of the occasions.
- After moving -7.2% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 56% of the occasions
- After moving -7.4% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 65% of the occasions.
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers
- Five-Day Return: BDX highest at -1.4%; EW lowest at -6.4%
- Ten-Day Return: BDX highest at 0.4%; BSX lowest at -8.3%
- Twenty-One Days Return: BDX highest at 2.7%; BSX lowest at -10.7%
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|S&P 500 Return||0%||25%||110%|
|Trefis MS Portfolio Return||2%||47%||295%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/9/2021
 Cumulative total returns since 2017
- European markets head for positive open as investors watch omicron and U.S. jobs data, Holly Ellyatt, CNBC, Dec 9, 2021 [↩]