The stock price of iRhythm Technologies (NASDAQ:IRTC), a healthcare company that provides ambulatory electrocardiogram (ECG) and cardiac monitoring products, has seen a rise of 20% over the last one month (twenty-one trading days). This can be attributed to Novitas, a Medicare Administrative Contractors (MACs), doubling certain Medicare rates for cardiac monitoring in 2022. The rate for monitoring between two days to seven days was increased to $223 vs. $103 last year, while the rates for cardiac monitor usage between seven to fifteen days are now set to $233, vs. $115 last year.  This comes as a big relief for iRhythm, which saw its stock price see a steep fall last year from levels of over $235 in early January to as low as $42 in August.
After the recent announcement on new rates, IRTC stock surged nearly 40% from levels of $102 on January 7 earlier this month, to levels north of $140 by January 11, before cooling off a little to $130 now. But now that IRTC stock has seen a 20% rise over the last month, will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a fall imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a high chance of continued gains in IRTC stock over the next month. Out of 175 instances in the last five years that IRTC stock saw a twenty-one day rise of 20% or more, 124 of them resulted in IRTC stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 124 out of 175, or a good 71% chance of a rise in IRTC stock over the coming month, implying that the stock may continue to rise in the near term. See our analysis on iRhythm Stock Chance of Rise for more details.
While IRTC stock may see higher levels over the next month, it is helpful to see how its peers stack up. Check out iRhythm Technologies Stock Comparison With Peers to see how IRTC stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You can find more such useful comparisons on Peer Comparisons.
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Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last five years data
- After moving -8.7% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 66% of the occasions.
- After moving 22.7% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 44% of the occasions
- After moving 19.6% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 71% of the occasions.
This pattern suggests that there is a high chance of a rise in IRTC stock over the next five days as well as next one month, but it may see lower levels over the next ten day period.
iRhythm Technologies (IRTC) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers And S&P500
- Five-Day Return: TFX highest at -2.9%; IRTC lowest at -8.7%
- Ten-Day Return: IRTC highest at 22.7%; MMSI lowest at -9.8%
- Twenty-One Day Return: IRTC highest at 19.6%; MMSI lowest at -7.4%
While IRTC stock may see higher levels, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Eli Lilly vs. Qorvo
What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.
|S&P 500 Return||-5%||-5%||102%|
|Trefis MS Portfolio Return||-10%||-10%||255%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/21/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016