Can Intel Stock Jump 30%?

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For Intel (INTC) stock to climb 30%, it would need one business above all: the chips it sells for data center servers. Intel bulls may be betting on exactly that. A move of that size is common for the stock, which rose 30% or more from one close to a later close in the same year in nine of the last ten calendar years. The shares fell 53.8% between October 7 and November 5, 2026. Intel is still better known for the chips inside PCs. The server business is growing fast, but the stock price went the other way. So how much does Intel’s data center business bring in today?

Intel’s Data Center Unit Now Out-Earns Its PC Unit

According to management’s segment figures, Intel’s data center unit generated a $3 billion operating profit in fiscal Q3 2026, surpassing the $2.3 billion its PC chip unit made. It did so on smaller sales, as data center revenue was $7.3 billion against $8.1 billion for the PC unit.

The difference is growth. Data center revenue rose nearly 80% from a year earlier, while PC unit revenue fell 5%. Management said demand for its data center products still meaningfully exceeds the supply it has, and a smaller line called purpose-built silicon more than doubled from a year earlier. Intel also signed an agreement with Oracle Cloud Infrastructure to deploy its latest server processors for that company’s AI build-out. In fiscal Q3 2026, Intel’s data center unit was both growing fast and earning the most.

Can Intel’s Servers Make Up For The PC Slump?

Not in the fourth quarter, according to management’s own guidance. On October 29, Intel guided fourth-quarter revenue to $15 billion to $16 billion, compared with $16.5 billion in fiscal Q3 2026. That guidance fell short of the $17.29 billion analysts expected, and the shares dropped.

Within that guidance, management expects data center revenue to grow by a mid-teens percentage from the third quarter, while PC unit revenue falls more than 20%. Management blamed the PC weakness on memory shortages and limited IT budgets, and it expects PC units across the industry to fall about 12% in 2026. For 2027, the company is planning for another fall of roughly 10%.

Management forecasts the opposite for servers, expecting industry server CPU units to grow more than 30% in both 2026 and 2027. It also said data center revenue is on track to finish 2026 nearly $10 billion above expectations set at the start of the year. The PC business is currently shrinking, while management describes a server market where demand runs ahead of what Intel can make.

Where Could Intel’s Data Center Growth Fall Short?

By management’s account, supply is the weak point. On the October 29 call, management said an industry-wide shortage of advanced organic substrates for Intel’s chip packaging is limiting how fast Intel can raise output. In early October, an accident shut Fab 28, the company’s Israel factory. Management expects a hit of about $300 million to fourth-quarter revenue, almost all of it in 10-nanometer server products. The company said the hit is likely to be similar in the first quarter of 2027.

Management also tied Intel’s 2027 server market share to supply, noting that the more it improves supply, the better it expects to do. Building that supply is expensive. Management said 2027 is probably not a year of positive free cash flow, as Intel ramps its Intel 18A and Intel 3 production and prepares Intel 14A to begin production in 2028.

Data center revenue is the figure to watch when Intel reports in January 2027.

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