What Calm Hides In Huntsman Stock
This chemical stock’s history reveals a pattern of falling much harder than the market during a crisis.
Huntsman (HUN) Corporation stock fell 17.1% in the latest session, a sharp move for any shareholder. The company, a maker of commodity chemicals like polyurethanes and MDI used in construction and durable goods, is in a complex spot. On its latest call, management spoke of aggressively raising prices to escape the “trough economics we have been experiencing for the past three years.” But the market is weighing that pricing power against the CEO’s own cautionary notes on the sustainability of demand amid inflationary pressures.
That one-day drop is a reminder of volatility, but it doesn’t capture the full picture. The urgent question for any owner of this stock is how it behaves in a true market shock, how far it can fall, and whether you can truly ride that out.
The Size of the Drop Huntsman Holders Face
When the broad market falls, Huntsman stock tends to fall further. Across the 15 catalogued market shocks it has traded through, its average peak-to-trough drop was 34%, while the S&P 500 fell an average of 16% over the same periods. The stock’s single deepest drawdown was a severe 91% during the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis.
It has historically been hit hardest during what are categorized as “Credit & Liquidity Crises.” For shareholders, these are not abstract events; they include the recallable Summer 2007 Credit Crunch, the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis, and the 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis. The historical pattern is one of amplified downside.
Does Huntsman Climb Back, Or Stay Down?
Nerve is one requirement for riding out a steep drop; time is the other. For the shocks it has fully recovered from, Huntsman took a median of about 6 months to return to its prior high. However, the slowest recovery, following the 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis, took about 69 months. A fast rebound is never a promise.
More pointedly, some recoveries have not happened at all. As of today, the stock has not reclaimed its high from the 2022 inflation shock and the resulting rise in interest rates and remains about 61% below it. The risk of a long or incomplete recovery is as real as the initial drop.
Every Major Shock Huntsman Has Traded Through
Peak-to-trough drawdown in each shock, and how long the stock took to reclaim its pre-shock high. Stock vs. the S&P 500, long-duration bonds, and its sector.
| Shock Event | Stock | S&P 500 | Bonds | Sector | Recovery |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Summer 2007 Credit Crunch | -9.8% | -8.6% | No decline | -14% | ~2 mo |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | -91% | -53% | No decline | -57% | ~69 mo |
| 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash | -29% | -15% | No decline | -20% | ~5 mo |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | -56% | -18% | -1.1% | -28% | ~19 mo |
| 2013 Taper Tantrum | -9.7% | -0.2% | -17% | -1.0% | ~4 mo |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | -69% | -6.8% | -5.0% | -24% | ~32 mo |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | -52% | -12% | -4.4% | -18% | ~10 mo |
| 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff | -1.9% | -3.7% | -15% | -3.3% | ~2 mo |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | -33% | -19% | -2.2% | -18% | ~26 mo |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | -38% | -34% | -0.7% | -36% | ~6 mo |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | -31% | -24% | -35% | -23% | Not yet |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | -23% | -6.7% | -4.3% | -8.6% | Not yet |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | -22% | -9.5% | -17% | -13% | Not yet |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | -8.6% | -7.8% | -1.2% | -1.3% | ~2 mo |
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | -38% | -19% | -3.8% | -17% | Not yet |
[1] Summer 2007 Credit Crunch: Subprime hedge fund failures froze interbank lending, prompting an emergency Fed rate cut.
[2] 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis: Lehman’s collapse froze global credit, crashing every asset class and spiking unemployment.
[3] 2010 Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis / Flash Crash: Greece’s deficit revelation collapsed European banks and triggered the May Flash Crash.
[4] 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion: US credit downgrade and European sovereign stress triggered a broad risk-off selloff.
[5] 2013 Taper Tantrum: Bernanke’s taper hint spiked Treasury yields, triggering emerging market capital flight.
[6] 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse: OPEC refused to cut output, crashing crude from $100 to $26.
[7] 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare: Yuan devaluation sparked global recession fears, crushing cyclicals and emerging markets.
[8] 2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff: Trump’s election spurred fiscal stimulus hopes, rotating capital from bonds into cyclicals.
[9] Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare: Powell’s hawkish comments and trade war fears triggered the worst December since 1931.
[10] 2020 COVID-19 Crash: Pandemic lockdowns caused history’s fastest bear market before massive stimulus drove recovery.
[11] 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening: 9.1% CPI forced aggressive rate hikes, crushing both stocks and bonds simultaneously.
[12] 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis: SVB’s rate-driven bond losses triggered a social-media bank run, seized by FDIC.
[13] Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock: Strong economic data pushed 10-year yields to 5%, compressing yield-sensitive sector valuations.
[14] 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind: BOJ rate hike unwound yen carry trades, briefly crashing tech stocks globally.
[15] 2025 US Tariff Shock: 145% China tariffs crashed equities and the dollar on supply chain disruption fears.
Is This A Sturdier Huntsman Now?
The company that fell 91% is not identical to the one today. Management is now “aggressively raising our prices” to expand margins, and the MDI industry is seeing capacity utilization push toward 90-plus percent, a level that an executive noted “starts to strain” supply. This suggests a tighter market that could support pricing.
Yet, the core vulnerability to economic cycles appears unchanged. The CEO himself questioned “the sustainability of the demand” long-term, pointing to risks like an 11% drop in March residential permits. The business remains deeply tied to the same macroeconomic health that has dictated its performance during past shocks. The pattern of cyclicality is still very much in place.
Sizing Up Your Huntsman Risk
The impact of that deepest 91% drawdown is best understood in concrete terms. On a position sized at 10% of a portfolio, it would have cut about 9% from the entire portfolio’s value. The question is whether your financial plan can absorb that kind of impact. For a shareholder, the most effective tool is not predicting the next crisis but controlling your exposure to this one.
Disciplined position sizing and genuine diversification are the practical levers for managing this amplified downside risk. The sustainability of end-market demand is the single most important variable to watch.
That discipline is exactly what the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio is built to deliver: it pairs the upside of strong businesses with the stability of a 30-stock portfolio, sized and rebalanced with discipline, and has a track record of outpacing a benchmark that combines all major indices – the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. Pairing a concentrated holding with an approach like this is how you keep compounding without a single drawdown derailing the plan.