Is Honeywell Aerospace Stock Really Expensive?

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Honeywell Aerospace (HONA) stock trades at 50.1 times its adjusted earnings for the last twelve months. Those earnings include normalized net income plus stock-based pay after tax, and 50.1 times is a steep price for a single year of profit. Look at the forecasts for fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027, however, and the valuation shifts. So what are you actually paying for the profit Honeywell Aerospace is expected to earn next?

What Does Honeywell Aerospace Stock Cost On Forecast Profit?

The stock looks less expensive on forecast profit, though part of that gap may come from a change in how profit is measured. At the November 11 share price of $169.53, the stock’s market value is 21.7 times the consensus forecast of earnings for fiscal 2026, counted as net income. Measured on forecast earnings per share, the multiple is 21.5 times. On the forecast for fiscal 2027, the same price is 19.3 times earnings, and on the last twelve months it is 50.1 times. The forecasts come from analysts, and the data does not say whether they are GAAP or adjusted earnings.

Those twelve months include fiscal Q4 2025, before Honeywell Aerospace’s spinoff from Honeywell, when the business reported a net loss of $0.485 billion. Normalized net income for those twelve months, $0.99 billion, is about the same as the $0.991 billion reported. The forecast for fiscal 2027 is also uncertain, with estimates of earnings per share for that year running from $7.99 to $9.14.

What Honeywell Aerospace Must Deliver For That Price

The fiscal 2026 forecast is no more than management has already promised. Analysts project a consensus of $7.87 in earnings per share for the year. This target sits inside the $7.85 to $8 range for pro forma standalone adjusted EPS that management established when it raised that guide on the October 28 call.

Fiscal 2027 presents a harder path. The consensus forecast models sales rising 7.7% that year to $19.8 billion. Honeywell Aerospace has not managed to grow that fast in any of the first three quarters of fiscal 2026. Compared to a year earlier, sales rose 6.8% in the first quarter and 2.4% in the third. Management expects a faster pace, stating on the call that the benefits of its supply chain actions will step up in 2027.

The forecast is also built on wider margins: a net margin of 14.0% in fiscal 2027, against the 10.2% Honeywell Aerospace reported for fiscal 2025, though the forecast may not use the same GAAP or adjusted measure. For the forward multiples to be the real price, the company has to sell faster than in fiscal 2026 so far and reach that 14.0% net margin.

Where Could Honeywell Aerospace’s Forecast Fall Short?

Supply remains the likeliest place for the forecast to fall short. During the October 28 call, management said customer demand is growing far faster than suppliers can deliver, and the backlog rose 12% from a year earlier to more than $19 billion. Management said it needs every mechanical component to ship one of its systems, so it can turn that backlog into sales only as fast as parts arrive.

Management said bearings have been its hardest supply category in fiscal 2026. It expects a second bearings supplier to clear its past-due deliveries by early 2027, and a third supplier to come online in the second quarter of 2027. If those suppliers run late, the sales forecast for fiscal 2027 is too high.

Margins are the second place where the outlook could miss. Management intends to pull forward supply chain investments that will run through the profit and loss statement, and the company is still working through what those investments mean for 2027 margins. The business also expects more of its supply to keep going to aircraft makers rather than the commercial aftermarket. Management called this mix a headwind. If those pressures land in fiscal 2027, the forecast’s net margin is too high.

The forward multiples offer a fair picture of what you pay if Honeywell Aerospace delivers the sales and margin in the forecast. Supply is where the forecast is most likely to fall short. If parts keep arriving late, the stock becomes a riskier bet, priced for profit the company has not yet earned. Honeywell Aerospace is expected to report its fiscal Q4 2026 results in February 2027. Sales growth is the measure to watch then.

Does This Mean You Should Act On HONA?

Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you can make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.

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