Harley-Davidson’s Stock To Rise As Results Improve?

Harley-Davidson’s stock (NYSE: HOG) declined by 6.7% to $41 in the last twenty-one trading days. In comparison, the broader S&P500 rose by 1.8% over the last twenty-one trading days. The fall was arrested after the Q2 2021 results where Harley-Davidson continued its recovery path as Worldwide retail sales were recorded at 65.3K units, up 24% y-o-y, led by the North American market which saw a 43% y-o-y rise for the quarter. At the current price the stock is below Trefis’ Harley-Davidson Valuation of $48. Now, is HOG stock poised to grow? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 57% chance of a near term rise in HOG stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on Harley-Davidson’s Stock Chances Of Rise for more details.

Five Days: HOG 5.7%, vs. S&P500 0.5%; Outperformed market

(8% event probability)

Harley-Davidson’s stock rose 5.7% over a five day trading period ending 8/11/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which rose 0.5%

• A change of 5.7% or more over five trading days has a 8% event probability, which has occurred 204 times out of 2517 in the last ten years

Ten Days: HOG 4.2%, vs. S&P500 0.7%; Outperformed market

(23% event probability)

• Harley-Davidson’s stock rose 4.2% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.7%
• A change of 4.2% or more over ten trading days has a 23% event probability, which has occurred 590 times out of 2517 in the last ten years

Twenty-One Days: HOG -6.7%, vs. S&P500 1.8%; Underperformed market

(18% event probability)

• Harley-Davidson’s stock declined 6.7% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.8%
• A change of -6.7% or more over twenty-one trading days has a 18% event probability, which has occurred 445 times out of 2517 in the last ten years

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