What To Expect From Harley-Davidson’s Q1 2019 Results?

by Trefis Team
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Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) is set to announce its Q1 2019 results on April 23, 2019, followed by a conference call with analysts. The Market expects the company to report revenue close to $1.4 billion in Q1 2019, which would be an decrease of nearly 10% on a year-on-year basis. The decrease is mainly expected due to the global auto market slowdown and the shrinkage of the heavy motorcycle market in the US.  Market expectation is for the company to report earnings of $0.65 per share in Q1 2019, lower than $1.24 per share in the year-ago period.


We have summarized our key expectations from the earnings announcement in our interactive dashboard – What Has Driven Harley-Davidson’s Revenues & Expenses Over Recent Quarters, And What Can We Expect For Full-Year 2019? In addition, here is more Consumer Discretionary data.


Key Factors That May Impact Future Performance:

Global Auto Market:

  • The Global Auto market, and hence production, has been slow in the recent past. In the fourth quarter of  2018, global vehicle production was down 5% compared to the last year, with China down 15%, and the industry is expected to face these challenges in 2019, too. The US Heavy Motorcycle market is also shrinking which still accounts for more than 60% of sales volume of the company.

Sales Volume:

  • This metric has been the primary reason for the company’s fall in revenue and income. The company sold 228K motorcycles in 2018, down from 262K motorcycles in 2016 (decrease of nearly 34K units).
  • The Heavy Motorcycle market shrinking in the US is one of the reason for the fall, thus the company has started to push its focus on the untapped international markets.
  • The company also has started investing in the light and middleweight segments, but an immediate impact is not expected this year. We estimate the volume to go down further to around 220K in 2019.


Trefis has an estimate of $41 for Harley-Davidson’s stock. The slowdown in the global market and shrinking of its primary market has brought the company to a crossroads, as they now focus on new segments and geographies to take the growth forward.



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