What’s The Upside Potential For Hims & Hers Stock?

Hims & Hers stock (NYSE: HIMS) surged 16% yesterday after announcing its expansion into menopause and perimenopause treatment—a strategic pivot that signals the company is building revenue streams beyond its controversial compounded GLP-1 obesity treatments. With shares already up 150% year-to-date and trading around $60, the key question now is: could HIMS stock rise another 2x to $120?

It’s an ambitious target, but let’s think through whether the math actually works. But before we dive into the math, if you seek an upside with less volatility than holding an individual stock, consider the High Quality Portfolio. It has comfortably outperformed its benchmark—a combination of the S&P 500, Russell, and S&P MidCap indexes—and has achieved returns exceeding 105% since its inception. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

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The Valuation Puzzle: Why 2x Isn’t Crazy

Here’s the interesting part about HIMS—it’s not trading like a typical high-growth stock. At 7.6x trailing revenues, the multiple seems almost conservative given what the company is delivering. Compare that to other high-growth healthcare names and you’d expect something closer to 12-15x for this kind of momentum.

So what’s the path to doubling? It comes down to two levers: revenue growth and multiple expansion.

Can revenues hit $4 billion by 2028?

The company just posted $2.0 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue, up 88.7% from $1.1 billion. That’s not a typo—nearly 90% growth. The most recent quarter showed $545 million in sales, a 72.6% jump from $316 million a year ago. See Hims & Hers Revenue Comparison for more details. This momentum is largely driven by compounded GLP-1s, which have been wildly popular as cheaper alternatives to Wegovy and Zepbound.

Consensus expects 58% growth this year and 20% next year, but those estimates were made before the menopause/perimenopause launch. If HIMS can sustain even a 25%-30% compound annual growth rate over the next three years—which seems reasonable given its three-year average of 76.3%—then $4 billion in 2028 revenue is actually achievable, maybe even conservative.

What happens to the multiple?

Here’s where it gets interesting. If revenue hits $4 billion and the stock stayed at $60, you’d be looking at just 3.8x sales. That would make HIMS one of the cheapest growth stories in healthcare. But that’s not how markets work, right?

More likely, as the revenue base grows and becomes more diversified with the menopause vertical, the multiple compresses modestly to maybe 6x. Do that math: 6x times $4 billion equals a $24 billion market cap. With roughly 245 million shares outstanding, that puts you north of $100—and that’s assuming the multiple actually falls from current levels.

But wait—shouldn’t the multiple expand instead? For a company consistently growing 75%+ annually, a 7.6x revenue multiple seems like it’s pricing in significant risk. Which brings us to the obvious question…

What’s Holding Back the Multiple?

1. The FDA elephant in the room:  Investors are spooked, and they have reason to be. The compounded GLP-1 business—HIMS’s golden goose—exists in regulatory gray area. The FDA allows compounding pharmacies to make versions of drugs during shortages, but what happens if Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly try to sue Hims & Hers? What if the FDA cracks down? This isn’t theoretical. The FDA has already signaled it’s monitoring the situation. Any regulatory action could wipe out a huge chunk of HIMS’s revenue overnight. That’s why the market is keeping the multiple in check—it’s pricing in existential risk.
2. The profitability question: HIMS is currently running slim margins. While revenue is exploding, the company is still investing heavily in customer acquisition and infrastructure. Bulls argue that margins will naturally expand with scale—fixed costs get leveraged, brand recognition reduces CAC, and the business model becomes more efficient. That’s the playbook for every high-growth platform company.

But until we see sustained profitability improvement, the market won’t give HIMS a premium SaaS-like multiple. Growth is great, but investors want to see a path to serious earnings power.

Key Drivers That Could Unlock the 2x

Diversification reduces concentration risk

The menopause launch is smart because it addresses the biggest bear case: over-reliance on compounded GLP-1s. Surely, the company has other revenue streams, including sexual health, mental health, and dermatology, among others. Menopause and perimenopause affect millions of women, it’s an underserved market, and HIMS’s direct-to-consumer model is perfectly suited for conditions where patients often feel stigmatized seeking traditional care.

If this vertical can generate even $500-750 million in annual revenue within 2-3 years, suddenly HIMS looks less like a one-trick pony betting on regulatory leniency and more like a legitimate multi-category telehealth platform.

Platform economics start to kick in

HIMS has built infrastructure—telehealth platform, pharmacy fulfillment, customer relationships. Every new vertical they launch leverages that existing infrastructure. The CAC to acquire a menopause customer is lower if that customer is already using HIMS for dermatology or hair loss. Cross-selling becomes powerful. This is where the business model starts to look really attractive.

The Risks That Could Derail Everything

1. Regulatory hammer: If the FDA decides to crack down on compounded GLP-1s before HIMS can meaningfully diversify, the stock could get cut in half overnight. This is the primary risk, and it’s very real. The pharmaceutical lobby is powerful, and they’re not happy about losing billions to compounders.
2. Competition intensifies: HIMS isn’t the only player in telehealth or compounded drugs. If competitors flood in with better pricing or patient experience, margins could compress and growth could stall. The barriers to entry in telehealth aren’t as strong as in traditional healthcare.
3. Multiple compression across growth stocks: We’re assuming HIMS can maintain or expand its multiple, but what if there’s a broader market rotation away from growth stocks? Elevated interest rates, recession fears, or risk-off sentiment could compress multiples across the board, dragging HIMS down regardless of fundamentals.

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The Verdict

Can HIMS double to $120? The mathematical path exists. Get to $4 billion in revenue with reasonable execution, maintain a 6x multiple, and you’re looking at $100-120 per share within three years. That’s not a moonshot scenario—it’s actually fairly conservative given the growth trajectory.

But here’s the thing: the valuation is cheap because the risks are real. The FDA sword hanging over compounded GLP-1s is serious, and until HIMS proves it can build meaningful revenue outside that category, investors will keep the multiple depressed.

The menopause launch is the right move. If it works—and if the regulatory environment stays favorable for another 12-18 months—HIMS could absolutely double. But if the FDA acts before the company diversifies, this stock could halve before it doubles.

The bet on HIMS at current levels is essentially a bet on timing: can management build a diversified revenue base before regulators shut down the compounded GLP-1 party? For risk-tolerant investors who believe the answer is yes, the risk-reward looks compelling. For everyone else, maybe wait to see how the menopause launch performs over the next two quarters.

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