Will HollyFrontier Stock Recover From The Bearish Trend In The Near Term?
Concerns of supply chain disruptions associated with geopolitical tensions has pushed the WTI benchmark above $100 per barrel. However, refinery stocks including HollyFrontier (NYSE: HFC) observe a downtrend as RBOB Gasoline Brent crack spread futures remain fairly stable for the coming months. It is largely due to expectations of lower transportation demand from continued macroeconomic sluggishness. Per the Trefis machine learning engine which analyzes historical stock price movements, HFC stock has a 48% chance of a rise over the next month (21 trading days). See our analysis HollyFrontier Stock Chance of Rise for more details. (related: Fuel Prices To Weigh On United Airlines Stock In The Near Term)
Five Days: HFC -13%, vs. S&P 500 -0.1%; Underperformed market (1% event probability)
- HFC stock declined 13% over a five-day trading period ending 3/2/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined 0.1% over the same period.
- Returns of -13% or lower over a five-day period on 32 occasions out of 2516 (1%); Stock rose in the next five days in 11 of these 32 instances (34%).
- What’s Next For UPS Stock After A Dismal Q2?
- What’s Next For Textron Stock After A 5% Fall In A Week?
- Should You Pick RTX Corp Stock At $125 After 10% Gains In A Week?
- Down 23% This Year, Will Starbucks’ Stock Recover Following Q3 Results?
- Down 14% YTD, What Lies Ahead For McDonald’s Stock Following Q2 Earnings?
- Meta Platforms Stock Is Up Twice As Much As S&P500, What To Expect From Q2 Results?
Ten Days: HFC -21%, vs. S&P 500 -2%; Underperformed market (1% event probability)
- HFC stock lost 21% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which fell by 2%.
- Returns of -21% or lower over 10-day period on 25 occasions out of 2515 (1%); Stock rose in the next 10 days in 7 of these 25 instances (28%).
Twenty-One Days: HFC -14%, vs. S&P 500 -2.7%; Underperformed market (8% event probability)
- HFC stock lost 14% over the last twenty-one trading days (about one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which fell by 2.7%.
- Returns of -14% or lower over 21-day period on 205 occasions out of 2515 (8%); Stock rose in the next 21 days in 99 of these 205 instances (48%).
What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.
| Returns | Mar 2022 MTD [1] |
2022 YTD [1] |
2017-22 Total [2] |
| HFC Return | -1% | -8% | -8% |
| S&P 500 Return | -1% | -10% | 92% |
| Trefis MS Portfolio Return | 0% | -11% | 252% |
[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 3/2/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016
Invest with Trefis Market-Beating Portfolios
See all Trefis Price Estimates