Concerns of supply chain disruptions associated with geopolitical tensions has pushed the WTI benchmark above $100 per barrel. However, refinery stocks including HollyFrontier (NYSE: HFC) observe a downtrend as RBOB Gasoline Brent crack spread futures remain fairly stable for the coming months. It is largely due to expectations of lower transportation demand from continued macroeconomic sluggishness. Per the Trefis machine learning engine which analyzes historical stock price movements, HFC stock has a 48% chance of a rise over the next month (21 trading days). See our analysis HollyFrontier Stock Chance of Rise for more details. (related: Fuel Prices To Weigh On United Airlines Stock In The Near Term)
Five Days: HFC -13%, vs. S&P 500 -0.1%; Underperformed market (1% event probability)
- HFC stock declined 13% over a five-day trading period ending 3/2/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined 0.1% over the same period.
- Returns of -13% or lower over a five-day period on 32 occasions out of 2516 (1%); Stock rose in the next five days in 11 of these 32 instances (34%).
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Ten Days: HFC -21%, vs. S&P 500 -2%; Underperformed market (1% event probability)
- HFC stock lost 21% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which fell by 2%.
- Returns of -21% or lower over 10-day period on 25 occasions out of 2515 (1%); Stock rose in the next 10 days in 7 of these 25 instances (28%).
Twenty-One Days: HFC -14%, vs. S&P 500 -2.7%; Underperformed market (8% event probability)
- HFC stock lost 14% over the last twenty-one trading days (about one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which fell by 2.7%.
- Returns of -14% or lower over 21-day period on 205 occasions out of 2515 (8%); Stock rose in the next 21 days in 99 of these 205 instances (48%).
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|S&P 500 Return||-1%||-10%||92%|
|Trefis MS Portfolio Return||0%||-11%||252%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 3/2/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016
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