Can Hudbay Minerals Stock Rally 40% After This Dip?
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Hudbay Minerals (HBM) stock fell 14.3% between its October 5 close and October 29, 2026. A drop of that size tempts buyers, and a 40% rally would be nothing new for Hudbay. Following past declines, the stock’s best price within a year reached a median 40.2% above the dip-date price. Investors only keep that gain if the rally lasts, however. So how many dip buyers were still ahead a year later?
How Did Hudbay Dip Buyers Do A Year Later?
Fewer than half came out ahead. Since January 2010, Hudbay stock has dipped 29 times, falling more than 20% within six weeks of trading on each occasion. Of the 27 dips with a full year behind them, 13 left the shares higher a year later. The median change over that year was 0.0%, meaning the typical dip buyer ended the year where they started. The dips of March and July 2026 are too recent to judge.
Buyers also had to sit through deep falls along the way. In the year after a dip, the lowest close sat a median 29.3% below the dip-date price. The best price arrived a median 202 days after the dip, about seven months in, so the typical rally appears to have faded before the year was out.
| Time after a past dip | Past dips with that much time after them | Median HBM price change |
|---|---|---|
| 21 trading days | 29 | -1.0% |
| 63 trading days | 29 | -4.0% |
| 126 trading days | 28 | 5.0% |
| 252 trading days | 27 | 0.0% |
| Dip date | HBM price change over the 30 trading days to the dip date | SPY price change over the same days | HBM price change 252 trading days after the dip date | Highest price in those 252 trading days, against the dip-date price | Calendar days to that highest price | Lowest price in those 252 trading days, against the dip-date price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | -26.1% | 0% | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete |
| 2026-03-13 | -22.9% | -5.0% | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete | window not complete |
| 2025-03-03 | -20.1% | -1.0% | 227.0% | 311.2% | 361 | -11.7% |
| 2024-08-05 | -20.1% | -5.0% | 37.0% | 56.0% | 331 | -13.3% |
| 2023-05-31 | -21.0% | 1.0% | 129.0% | 142.7% | 356 | -4.8% |
| 2023-02-24 | -22.9% | 0.0% | 26.0% | 25.8% | 157 | -12.2% |
| 2022-10-24 | -20.0% | -7.0% | 14.0% | 66.7% | 80 | 0% |
| 2022-04-22 | -25.2% | 0.0% | -24.0% | 0.0% | 0 | -51.0% |
| 2021-08-20 | -22.6% | 2.0% | -24.0% | 62.1% | 202 | -40.6% |
| 2021-06-17 | -23.4% | 1.0% | -22.0% | 40.2% | 266 | -21.7% |
| 2020-01-31 | -21.1% | 1.0% | 102.0% | 147.8% | 342 | -55.6% |
| 2019-08-01 | -27.8% | 1.0% | -17.0% | 9.7% | 147 | -64.1% |
| 2019-05-08 | -20.5% | 2.0% | -57.0% | 0.0% | 0 | -75.9% |
| 2018-10-29 | -21.3% | -8.0% | 0.0% | 109.2% | 165 | -17.7% |
| 2018-06-25 | -23.3% | 0% | -5.0% | 33.4% | 291 | -37.1% |
| 2018-04-02 | -20.3% | -5.0% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 16 | -47.2% |
| 2018-02-28 | -22.6% | -2.0% | -11.0% | 4.6% | 14 | -53.0% |
| 2017-03-27 | -24.4% | 1.0% | 6.0% | 51.3% | 296 | -29.3% |
| 2016-08-25 | -20.7% | 1.0% | 100.0% | 107.0% | 173 | -17.2% |
| 2015-11-18 | -22.6% | 5.0% | 39.0% | 45.5% | 363 | -60.1% |
| 2015-07-16 | -21.0% | 1.0% | -26.0% | 0.0% | 0 | -77.8% |
| 2014-10-02 | -20.5% | -2.0% | -51.0% | 25.2% | 211 | -55.5% |
| 2013-06-24 | -21.9% | -3.0% | 42.0% | 49.7% | 332 | -11.8% |
| 2013-04-19 | -20.0% | 1.0% | 5.0% | 14.9% | 273 | -25.3% |
| 2013-02-21 | -20.9% | 3.0% | -11.0% | 9.9% | 22 | -36.0% |
| 2012-05-14 | -21.8% | -5.0% | -8.0% | 42.0% | 254 | -16.9% |
| 2011-09-29 | -20.1% | -3.0% | 0.0% | 23.8% | 148 | -28.2% |
| 2011-08-16 | -21.3% | -11.0% | -31.0% | 8.1% | 15 | -41.4% |
| 2010-05-06 | -30.0% | -3.0% | 66.0% | 98.2% | 218 | 0% |
| Median of 27 complete windows | – | – | 0.0% | 40.2% | 202 | -29.3% |
How Is Hudbay’s Copper And Gold Business Doing?
Hudbay’s business was growing and profitable in its latest quarter, the second quarter of 2026. Revenue rose 17.7% from a year earlier to $631 million. The operating margin widened to 32.4% from 28.3% a year before. Copper continues to make up most of the business, but management said gold supplied 38% of gross revenues in the quarter.
Hudbay also converts those sales into cash. Over the twelve months to June 2026, cash from operations equaled 33.7% of revenue. On June 30, Hudbay held $891 million of cash against $913 million of debt, leaving its borrowing almost fully covered.
At the October 29 close, Hudbay traded at 11.3 times its operating cash flow, compared to 15.4 for the S&P 500. Based on sales, however, the shares cost more than the index.
Hudbay Faces A Costlier Copper World Decision
During its July 29 call, management said the decision on whether to build Copper World, its U.S. copper project, was on track for later in 2026. Management also expects the new feasibility study to show higher capital costs than the 2023 study, mainly from cost inflation and changes to the project’s scope, though it said higher copper prices will likely offset any cost changes.
If the project goes ahead, management expects Copper World to lift annual copper production by 70%, to about 250,000 tonnes, by the end of the decade. First production would begin in the second half of 2029, meaning that copper is about three years away.
A buyer at today’s price is betting that a rebound would hold longer than it did after most past dips, and that the cash Hudbay’s copper and gold mines produce can cover a costlier Copper World. Copper World’s capital cost is the figure to watch when Hudbay announces its building decision.
What Would Another Fall In Hudbay Minerals Do To Your Plan?
A fall hurts most when one stock is a large part of what you own, and selling it to spread the risk can bring a large tax bill. Our partner advisory firm offers a free strategy review of ways to put a floor under a large position and unwind it with less tax.
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