Hyatt stock (NYSE:H) has gained about 8% over the last month (around 21 trading days) and remains up by about 4% over the last week (five trading days) . Hyatt recently reported a strong set of Q3 2022 results, driven by a robust recovery in global travel demand following the easing of Covid-19 restrictions. While adjusted earnings stood at a stronger-than-expected $0.64 per share, comparable system-wide revenue per available room rose 46% year-over-year to $133, while the metric for the U.S. rose by over 35% to about $148. The company has also been expanding its portfolio, raising its net rooms growth guidance for full year 2022 to 6.5% driven by multiple deals. For instance, the company entered into a collaboration agreement with Germany’s Lindner Hotels in a deal that adds over 30 hotels and 5,500 rooms across seven European countries. Last week, the company agreed to pay a base acquisition price of $125 million to buy Dream Hotel Group’s lifestyle hotel brand and management platform. Investors appear to like these deals, as they are relatively asset-light and also focus on more premium properties that are currently in demand.
However, now that Hyatt stock has seen a gain of about 8% over the last month, will it continue its upward trajectory in the near term, or is a decline imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a roughly equal chance of a rise or a decline in Hyatt stock the next month. Out of 375 instances in the last 10 years when Hyatt (H) stock saw a trailing 21-day rise of 8% or more, 192 of those instances resulted in H stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (21 trading days). This historical pattern reflects 192 out of 375, or about a 51% chance of a rise in Hyatt stock over the next month. See our analysis on Hyatt Stock Chance of A Rise for more details.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using the last ten years’ data
- After moving 3.6% or more over five days, the stock rose in the next five days on 48% of the occasions.
- After moving 5.6% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 50% of the occasions
- After moving 8% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 51% of the occasions.
|S&P 500 Return||0%||-15%||82%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||1%||-17%||230%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/4/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016