7 Green Days In A Row: Fiserv Stock Is Up 32%

FISVYTD-6.6%SPYYTD+8.1%XLFYTD+5.9%
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Fiserv (FISV) stock is on a 7-day winning streak, up 32.4% since the run began. That added about $8.2 billion to the company’s market value, which now stands at about $33.4 billion. The stock closed at $62.74 on Thursday, November 5, 10.2% below its 52-week high of $69.85 and 41.4% above its low of $44.36.

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How The Streak Stacks Up Against The S&P 500

Returns for FISV and the S&P 500 over the streak and the periods around it, all ending Thursday, November 5 and including dividends:
 

Return Period FISV S&P 500
1 Day 1.1% -4.4%
7 Days (Current Streak) 32.4% -4.8%
1 Month (21 Trading Days) 38.5% -5.7%
3 Months (63 Trading Days) 19.7% -5.0%
Year To Date -6.6% 8.4%
1 Year (252 Trading Days) -2.7% 9.9%

How The Streak Compares With The Market

The market explains little of this: the S&P 500 lost 4.8% over the same 7 sessions, including dividends, against Fiserv’s +32.4%. 1 other S&P 500 stock is currently on winning streaks of 7 days or longer. Over the past three months the stock is up 19.7%, a window that includes the streak; over the other 56 sessions of that window it was down 9.6%.

Do The Fundamentals Support The Run?

On the fundamentals, revenue declined 1.7% over the last twelve months, against a median of 10.0% for S&P 500 Financials stocks; and its operating margin is 19.2%, versus a median of 26.7%. Fiserv does not have positive trailing earnings, so there is no meaningful price-to-earnings multiple to compare. The numbers make the run harder to justify: shrinking revenue and margins below the median. At this price, the stock is asking a lot of the business.

A climb like this is worth respecting, and worth testing. Our Guidance Momentum screen tracks the stocks whose companies just raised their own forward numbers.

One Hot Stock Is A Story. Thirty Sound Ones Are A Strategy

A streak like this earns a place on your watchlist, and it also earns a question: how much of your outcome do you want depending on one company keeping this up?

The Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio answers it with breadth: roughly 30 businesses picked for consistent cash generation, strong margins, and balance-sheet strength, sized and rebalanced by rules. It has a track record of outpacing a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, the S&P MidCap 400, and the Russell 2000. Follow the story; invest in the strategy.