FedEx stock (NYSE: FDX) has plunged 31% in a month, underperforming its peers, with UPS, XPO, and CHRW stocks down between 13 and 15% and the broader S&P500 index down 8%. The fall for FedEx, particularly, can be attributed to its downbeat Q1 fiscal 2023 results reported earlier this month. The big e-commerce surge seen through the lockdown phase of the Covid-19 pandemic is now cooling off, impacting the delivery volumes for FedEx. Furthermore, the weakening U.S. economy and high inflation are weighing on the company’s operating margin, which has plunged to 5.7% currently, compared to 9.8% in fiscal 2021. Our FedEx operating income comparison dashboard has more details. To reduce costs, the company has decided to close some offices, cut its flight frequencies, and cancel some network capacity projects, among other actions. The company also withdrew its earnings guidance for fiscal 2023.
Now that FDX stock has seen a fall of 31% in a month, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a higher chance of an increase in FDX stock over the next month. A move of -31% or more is uncommon for FedEx and has occurred only eight times in the last ten years. Given how unlikely such an exceptional stock price movement is, we looked at the 28 instances where FDX stock saw an unusual drop of 20% or more in a month. Of those instances, 19 resulted in FedEx stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 19 of 28 or a 68% chance of a rise in FDX stock over the next month. See our analysis of FedEx Stock Chance of Rise for more details.
FedEx (FDX) Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers
- Five-Day Return: EXPD highest at 1.2%; UPS lowest at -3.9%
- Ten-Day Return: AMZN highest at -8.2%; FDX lowest at -26.8%
- Twenty-One Day Return: AMZN highest at -9.1%; FDX lowest at -30.8%
While FDX stock looks like it can see higher levels, it is helpful to see how FedEx’s Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.
Furthermore, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities, which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised at how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for FedEx vs. Amerco.
With higher inflation and the Fed raising interest rates, among other factors, FedEx stock has fallen 42% this year. Can it drop more? See how low FedEx stock can go by comparing its decline in previous market crashes. Here is a performance summary of all stocks in previous market crashes.
|S&P 500 Return||-6%||-22%||66%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||-9%||-23%||203%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 9/29/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016