Should You Buy Ford Motor Stock Because It Is Selling Fewer Vehicles At Better Prices?

Headlines on Ford Motor (F) read like a business in retreat: a $1.3 billion net loss for the second quarter of 2026 and a 10.2% drop in U.S. sales in July. Underneath, second-quarter adjusted EBIT rose 17% to $2.5 billion as revenue fell 4% to $48.3 billion, and management lifted its 2026 adjusted EBIT guidance to a range of $10 billion to $11 billion.

How Is Ford Growing Adjusted Profit While Selling Less?

The CFO credits the second quarter’s EBIT strength largely to mix and net pricing, the same two reasons behind the guidance raise. The volume drop was expected: lower aluminum supply from Novelis held back production, and Ford retired certain vehicles. Even the July sales drop was by design, the company says, as it phased out two vehicles and cut back its daily rental fleet business.

Off-road vehicles made up 25% of U.S. sales in the second quarter, and the CEO says the bet on models such as Bronco and Tremor has paid off in higher margins. In F-Series pickups, the head of Ford Blue says Ford leads the competition, with significantly lower incentives and higher share.

Company-wide adjusted EBIT rose even though EBIT at Ford Pro, the commercial business, fell 26%, mainly because of the temporary Novelis disruption. At Ford Blue, a mix enabled by U.S. regulatory changes and higher net pricing more than offset an 8% decline in wholesales.

How Far Does Ford’s Margin Trail Its Peers And Its Own Target?

Ford’s net margin over the last twelve months was -3.9%, down from 1.7% a year earlier and at the low end of a peer group that reaches as high as 9.0%. Management ties the second-quarter net loss to a one-time $3.6 billion charge on the disposition of a battery joint venture, which explains only that quarter, not the full twelve months.

Second-quarter adjusted EBIT was about 5% of revenue, against a target of an 8% adjusted EBIT margin by 2029. Software and physical services are central to that target, the CEO says.

Can Ford Hold Those Prices Once More Trucks Reach Dealers?

The Oakville expansion is due to launch in the fourth quarter of 2026 with up to 100,000 units of extra Super Duty capacity, and the F-Series supply stood at around 45 days in late July, which the CEO calls very lean. The question is whether incentives stay low as dealers restock.

Management calls it too early to say whether EBIT rises in 2027. Among the headwinds it lists are the non-repeat of a one-time $1.3 billion tariff benefit booked in the first quarter of 2026, launch costs for Ford Energy and the universal EV platform, and a full four quarters of commodity costs instead of three. On the other side, about $1.5 billion of temporary Novelis costs is not expected to repeat.

So the case rests on Ford’s trucks and off-road models keeping their pricing as supply returns, whatever 2027 brings. At $13.88 as of Sep 10, 2026, Ford shares sit at about 80% of their 52-week high of $17.25, though the stock has returned 26.4% over the past twelve months against 17.9% for the S&P 500. Companies that have also lifted their guidance appear in our guidance-driven momentum screen.

Is Ford’s Pricing Power Reason Enough To Own The Shares?

Possibly, if you believe Ford’s trucks and off-road models keep their pricing as supply catches up. That is still a wager on one automaker’s discipline and on U.S. regulatory changes that helped its mix. For money that should not ride on one company, the Trefis High Quality Portfolio spreads the bet across quality businesses. That portfolio has a track record of outpacing the three major indices.