Management Raised the Bar For Expedia Stock; Does The Chart Agree?

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Expedia (EXPE) raised its revenue forecast for fiscal 2026 on August 5, 2026, yet the stock has slipped 6.3% from its August 5 close, the last before that after-market release, through November 2, against a 2.4% fall for the S&P 500. A higher forecast alongside a weaker share price is a mixed signal, and the chart is worth checking before taking the raise at face value. So where does Expedia’s share price stand today against its own averages?

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Expedia Stock Backs The Raise Only In Part

Expedia’s share price stands above both of its main averages. The stock closed at $298.99 on November 2, above its 50-day average of $285.69, the average closing price over the last 50 trading days. That 50-day average sits above the 200-day average of $258.50, the same measure over 200 trading days, leaving the stock’s uptrend intact on its averages.

The stock’s return since the release does not align with the raise. Expedia reported after the market closed on August 5. On August 6, the first session after the release, the stock fell 4.1% while the S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, a move that priced the second-quarter results and the raised forecast together. Much of the strength above the averages is recent: over the month to November 2, Expedia stock returned 12.8%, including dividends, against a 2.3% loss for the S&P 500.

What Expedia Raised For Fiscal 2026

Management raised its fiscal 2026 revenue forecast to a range of $16.05 billion to $16.22 billion. At the midpoint, that is 2.1% above the $15.8 billion it guided in May. Management tied the raise to the strength of the first half and its assumptions for the third quarter.

That strength showed in the second quarter, when revenue grew 14% from a year earlier, a pace management said beat its own expectations. The business-to-business segment, which serves more than 70,000 partners, posted its 20th straight quarter of double-digit growth.

The raise went beyond revenue. Management lifted its fiscal 2026 forecast for gross bookings, the value of travel booked through Expedia, to $130 billion at the midpoint from $128 billion. It also now expects its adjusted EBITDA margin, its own measure of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization as a share of revenue, to widen by 1.6 percentage points over last year at the midpoint, up from 1.1 points.

What Could Move Expedia Stock From Here?

A much slower second half would still meet the raised forecast. At its midpoint, the raised forecast leaves Expedia needing about $8.39 billion in the third and fourth quarters of fiscal 2026, or 5.5% more than in the same quarters a year earlier. That compares with 14.3% growth in the first half. For the third quarter, management guided revenue growth of about 5% to 8% and said it expects bookings growth to moderate as Expedia laps faster growth from a year earlier.

The business that could push the stock higher is business-to-business. That segment grew revenue 18.0% in fiscal 2025, while the larger consumer segment grew 2.2%. On valuation, Expedia stock trades at 17.7 times its last twelve months of earnings, against 22.8 for the S&P 500.

For now, the stock’s place above its averages aligns with the raise, while its return since the release does not. Expedia is expected to report its September quarter on November 4, and revenue against the third-quarter forecast of $4.65 billion to $4.75 billion is the first measure of the raised year. Expedia’s business-to-business growth, set against the consumer side, is the other measure to watch in that report.

Does This Mean You Should Act On EXPE?

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