Is eBay’s Next Big Thing Already Here?

For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.

The biggest opportunity for eBay may be a business the company bought just this summer. This matters to shareholders right now, because eBay (EBAY) stock returned 30.1% over the past year against 16.5% for the S&P 500. The company closed the cash purchase on July 30, 2026, and management expects the business to start adding to its adjusted operating profit in 2028. What did eBay buy, and is there any sign it is working?

eBay Bought Depop, Whose Buyer Count Is Rising

eBay bought Depop, a brand with a strong reach among younger consumers, to go after what management calls a huge underpenetrated opportunity in U.S. consumer-to-consumer fashion. The early sign is Depop’s own growth. On the August call, management said Depop had about 7 million buyers when eBay announced the deal, and close to 9 million by the end of June. Because this growth arrived before the deal closed, it is Depop’s own doing, not yet eBay’s doing.

eBay’s own consumer selling points the same way. During the June quarter, the company’s consumer-to-consumer GMV, the value of goods sold between individuals on eBay, grew by over 20%, outpacing total GMV growth of 14%. Depop therefore adds to the part of eBay that was already growing faster than the marketplace as a whole.

When eBay is a large share of what you own, your plan waits on the same catalyst. See how to protect a concentrated position.

How Much Can Depop Add To eBay’s Growth?

Management expects Depop to add roughly 1 percentage point to eBay’s revenue growth in 2026, representing a small step. eBay paid $1.4 billion in cash for Depop, or about 2.6% of the company’s market value of $54.7 billion.

The room to grow lies in the U.S., where management’s analysis puts the online share of second-hand fashion sold between consumers in the low single digits, well below Europe.

eBay stock closed at $122.90 on October 21, 2026, landing within a cent of its highest close over the past year. The stock trades at 24.6 times its earnings over the past twelve months, compared with 23.0 for the S&P 500. With Depop adding so little in 2026, that price appears to assume the core eBay marketplace keeps growing.

What Does Depop Have To Prove For eBay?

Depop has to grow without costing eBay profit growth for long. Management guides adjusted operating income growth of 10% to 12% for 2026, including Depop. The company expects Depop to hold that growth back by about 2 percentage points.

Rivals present the other worry. During the August call, an analyst noted that consumer-to-consumer selling is accelerating and that several competitors are investing heavily in it. Management said its Depop spending goes mainly to marketing and to cheaper shipping, adding that part of this investment is paid for with money eBay already spends marketing its own consumer selling and fashion.

The core marketplace also faces tougher comparisons. Management guides third-quarter revenue growth of about 7% to 9% excluding Depop, against 14% in the June quarter. Management says the slowdown comes mainly from lapping last year’s gains, which included a full quarter of the boost from launching its U.S. Klarna partnership.

Depop represents the growth eBay has paid for, and for now it remains small against the whole company while costing profit growth. When eBay reports in October 2026, Depop’s contribution to GMV growth, which management guided at about 2.5 points for the partial third quarter, is the number to watch.

Is Too Much Of Your Wealth Riding On One Stock?

eBay holders are waiting for something new to move the stock. When one position grows into a large part of your wealth, a sharp fall can hurt your whole plan, and selling to spread the money out can bring a large tax bill. Our partner advisory firm offers a free strategy review of ways to protect a concentrated position and unwind it with less tax.

Request A Free Strategy Review

Spot an error or want more like this? Tell us in 10 seconds.