Brinker International Stock To $134?
Brinker International (EAT) stock has fallen by 21.3% in less than a month, from $133.46 on 10/21/2025 to $105.05 now. What comes next? As it turns out, we believe there is a good chance of a stock rebound considering history of recovery post-dips and our current Attractive opinion of the stock. Dip buying is a viable strategy for quality stocks that have a history of recovering from dips.
As it turns out, EAT stock passes basic quality checks. The stock has returned (median) 41% in one year, and 59% as peak return following sharp dips (>30% in 30 days) historically. For quick background, EAT operates and franchises casual dining restaurants, primarily Chili’s and Maggiano’s, with a global presence encompassing 1,648 locations as of mid-2021.
For details on stock fundamentals and assessment: Read Buy or Sell Brinker International Stock to see the full picture.
A single stock can be risky, but there is a huge value to a broader, diversified approach we take with the Trefis High Quality Portfolio. Trefis works with Empirical Asset Management — a Boston area wealth manager — whose asset allocation strategies yielded positive returns during the 2008-09 period when the S&P lost more than 40%. Empirical has incorporated the Trefis HQ Portfolio in this asset allocation framework to provide clients with higher returns while taking on lower levels of risk versus the benchmark index.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
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| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | -11.2% |
| 3M | 10.7% |
| 6M | 37.4% |
| 12M | 41.0% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
EAT had 3 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 59% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 238 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -35% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | EAT Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | EAT | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 41% | 59% | -35% | 238 | ||||
| 6142022 | -33% | -10% | 41% | 59% | -15% | 238 | ||
| 12012021 | -31% | -0% | -1% | 29% | -35% | 77 | ||
| 3062020 | -32% | -10% | 139% | 145% | -75% | 353 | ||
Brinker International Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 23.2% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 13.2% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 13.2% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 11.7 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 0.7 |
Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.