How Will Electronic Arts Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:EA) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. The company has $51 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $7.3 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $996 Mil in operating profits and net income of $680 Mil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
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Electronic Arts’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 55% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 50% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 2.4%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -2.3%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/3/2026 | -2.3% | 0.6% | -0.2% |
| 10/28/2025 | -0.0% | 0.2% | 0.8% |
| 7/29/2025 | 5.7% | 8.9% | 16.9% |
| 5/6/2025 | 0.6% | -3.5% | -4.2% |
| 1/22/2025 | -16.7% | -17.7% | -8.0% |
| 10/29/2024 | 2.4% | 6.8% | 12.1% |
| 7/30/2024 | 1.2% | -2.3% | 0.3% |
| 5/7/2024 | -3.8% | -2.8% | 5.6% |
| 1/30/2024 | 0.0% | -1.7% | 1.5% |
| 11/1/2023 | 3.6% | 5.6% | 11.4% |
| 8/1/2023 | -7.2% | -9.9% | -11.3% |
| 5/9/2023 | -0.5% | -0.2% | 1.5% |
| 1/31/2023 | -9.3% | -11.3% | -12.6% |
| 11/1/2022 | 1.9% | 2.2% | 4.4% |
| 8/2/2022 | 3.4% | 0.3% | -1.4% |
| 5/10/2022 | 8.0% | 15.1% | 21.9% |
| 2/1/2022 | 5.6% | 3.4% | -1.6% |
| 11/3/2021 | 2.1% | -0.2% | -10.2% |
| 8/4/2021 | -2.2% | -1.2% | 4.0% |
| 5/11/2021 | -1.2% | -2.3% | 3.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 9 | 12 |
| # Negative | 9 | 11 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% |
| Median Negative | -2.3% | -2.3% | -6.1% |
| Max Positive | 8.0% | 15.1% | 21.9% |
| Max Negative | -16.7% | -17.7% | -12.6% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 35.9% | -11.2% | -13.1% |
| 3Y History | 24.7% | -13.9% | -11.9% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Electronic Arts stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Electronic Arts. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| EA Earnings Dates | EA | MSFT |
| 2/3/2026 | -2.3% | -14.6% |
| 5/6/2025 | 0.6% | 9.6% |
| 5/7/2024 | -3.8% | 2.6% |
| 11/1/2023 | 3.6% | 4.7% |
| 8/1/2023 | -7.2% | -4.2% |
| 5/9/2023 | -0.5% | 11.5% |
| 1/31/2023 | -9.3% | 2.4% |
| 11/1/2022 | 1.9% | -9.0% |
| 8/2/2022 | 3.4% | 9.1% |
| 5/10/2022 | 8.0% | -0.3% |
| 2/1/2022 | 5.6% | 7.0% |
| 11/3/2021 | 2.1% | 7.7% |
| 8/4/2021 | -2.2% | -0.0% |
| CORRELATION | 29.3% |
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