Deutsche Bank stock (NYSE: DB) has declined 24% in the last week, underperforming the S&P 500 (up 0.1%). Further, the stock lost more than the broader markets over the last ten days (27% vs 2.1%) and the one month (16% vs 2.7%). The recent stock market turmoil was due to the expectation of higher than anticipated interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and the escalation of the Ukraine and Russia conflict.
The German banking giant recently released its fourth-quarter results, surpassing the consensus profit estimates. It posted an 8% y-o-y increase in total revenues to 5.9 billion euros. The rise was mainly due to a 32% growth in the asset management business, followed by a 10% growth in the corporate bank unit and a 4% increase in the private bank division. That said, the investment bank segment reported a meager 1% growth in the quarter. It was because of a 14% drop in the sales & trading revenues, offset by a 29% jump in the origination and advisory revenues. Overall, this led to an adjusted net income of 263 million euros in the quarter – up 80% y-o-y. Further, the bank’s top-line improved 6% y-o-y to 25.4 billion euros in FY2021. This was because of a 14% growth in the non-interest income, partially offset by a 3% drop in the net interest income.
Now, is DB stock set to drop further, or could we expect some recovery? We believe that there is a 63% chance of a rise in Deutsche Bank stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on Deutsche Bank Stock Chance of Rise.
Additionally, if you are considering Deutsche Bank’s stock as an investment option over a larger time frame, you can explore our forecast for Deutsche Bank’s valuation.
Twenty-One Day: DB -16%, vs. S&P500 -2.7%; Underperformed market
(5% likelihood event; 63% probability of rise over next 21 days)
- Deutsche Bank stock lost 16% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) decline of 2.7%
- A change of -16% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 5% likelihood event, which has occurred 127 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
- Of these 127 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 80 occasions
- This points to a 63% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days
Ten Day: DB -27%, vs. S&P500 -2.1%; Underperformed market
(<1% likelihood event; 67% probability of rise over next 10 days)
- Deutsche Bank stock decreased 27% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) drop of 2.1%
- A change of -27% or more over ten trading days is a less than 1% likelihood event, which has occurred 9 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
- Of these 9 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 6 occasions
- This points to a 67% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days
Five Day: DB -24%, vs. S&P500 0.1%; Underperformed market
(<1% likelihood event; 0% probability of rise over next five days)
- Deutsche Bank stock lost 24% over a five-day trading period ending 03/01/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) change of 0.1%
- A change of -24% or more over five trading days (one week) is a less than 1% likelihood event, which has occurred once out of 2516 in the last ten years
- On this one instance, the stock has not seen a positive movement over the next five trading days
- This points to a <1% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days
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|S&P 500 Return||-2%||-10%||92%|
|Trefis MS Portfolio Return||0%||-11%||252%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 3/2/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016
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