How Will CVS Health Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
CVS Health (NYSE:CVS) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. The company has $104 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $402 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $10 Bil in operating profits and net income of $1.8 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
Individual stocks swing, but a balanced asset allocation doesn’t. Trefis’ Boston-based wealth management partner blends strategy and discipline to smooth out market noise.
CVS Health’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 47% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 36% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 4.1%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -3.1%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/10/2026 | -0.1% | 3.2% | -0.1% |
| 10/29/2025 | -1.9% | -5.0% | -2.8% |
| 7/31/2025 | -0.3% | 2.0% | 15.8% |
| 5/1/2025 | 4.1% | 0.1% | -4.0% |
| 2/12/2025 | 14.9% | 20.7% | 19.5% |
| 10/18/2024 | -5.2% | -10.9% | -15.5% |
| 8/7/2024 | -3.2% | -4.3% | -0.5% |
| 5/1/2024 | -16.8% | -17.7% | -17.2% |
| 2/7/2024 | 3.1% | 3.8% | 0.7% |
| 11/1/2023 | -0.4% | 1.8% | -1.5% |
| 8/2/2023 | 3.3% | 0.1% | -9.6% |
| 5/3/2023 | -3.7% | -3.8% | -5.3% |
| 2/8/2023 | 3.5% | 3.0% | -10.4% |
| 11/2/2022 | 2.3% | 7.4% | 7.4% |
| 8/3/2022 | 6.3% | 8.7% | 2.9% |
| 5/4/2022 | 4.8% | 2.3% | 1.3% |
| 2/9/2022 | -5.4% | -7.1% | -6.1% |
| 11/3/2021 | 5.7% | 1.8% | -1.3% |
| 8/4/2021 | -2.9% | -0.9% | 2.0% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 12 | 7 |
| # Negative | 10 | 7 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -5.0% | -4.7% |
| Max Positive | 14.9% | 20.7% | 19.5% |
| Max Negative | -16.8% | -17.7% | -17.2% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 29.3% | -24.3% | -21.1% |
| 3Y History | 51.0% | -16.5% | -13.8% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of CVS Health stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before CVS Health. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVS Earnings Dates | CVS | UNH | ELV | HUM |
| 2/10/2026 | -0.1% | -3.4% | -4.7% | N/A* |
| 10/29/2025 | -1.9% | -3.4% | -3.8% | N/A* |
| 7/31/2025 | -0.3% | -4.4% | -6.4% | -4.4% |
| 5/1/2025 | 4.1% | -11.8% | -1.8% | -2.4% |
| 2/12/2025 | 14.9% | 3.3% | -3.9% | N/A* |
| 10/18/2024 | -5.2% | 2.4% | -3.1% | N/A* |
| 8/7/2024 | -3.2% | 3.1% | N/A* | -4.4% |
| 5/1/2024 | -16.8% | 3.2% | -0.1% | -0.6% |
| 2/7/2024 | 3.1% | -0.4% | 5.1% | 3.7% |
| 11/1/2023 | -0.4% | -1.4% | -4.8% | N/A* |
| 8/2/2023 | 3.3% | 5.1% | 1.8% | N/A* |
| 5/3/2023 | -3.7% | -4.4% | 0.2% | 4.8% |
| 2/8/2023 | 3.5% | -1.3% | -2.4% | -3.7% |
| 11/2/2022 | 2.3% | 5.9% | 10.3% | N/A* |
| 8/3/2022 | 6.3% | 2.1% | 4.4% | 0.7% |
| 5/4/2022 | 4.8% | -5.1% | N/A* | -0.2% |
| 2/9/2022 | -5.4% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 8.8% |
| 11/3/2021 | 5.7% | 8.8% | 0.1% | N/A* |
| 8/4/2021 | -2.9% | 0.4% | 3.1% | -3.3% |
| CORRELATION | -23.1% | 19.7% | 6.4% | |
* N/A indicates that the peer reported earnings after CVS
Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock such as CVS, consider the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.