CommVault Systems Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go?
CommVault Systems (CVLT) stock is down 31.1% in a day. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around CVLT’s unclear EPS guidance and short-term profitability, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where CommVault Systems stands today.
- Size: CommVault Systems is a $4.0 Bil company with $1.1 Bil in revenue currently trading at $89.13.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 22.0% and operating margin of 7.8%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.23 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.55
- Valuation: CommVault Systems stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 49.3 and P/EBIT multiple of 45.6
- Has returned (median) 32.4% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See CVLT Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Strong operational performance, alongside High valuation – making the stock Fairly Priced. For details, see Buy or Sell CVLT Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is CVLT stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose CVLT stock falls another 20-30% to $62 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
2022 Inflation Shock
- CVLT stock fell 39.1% from a high of $83.87 on 3 September 2021 to $51.08 on 15 September 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 30 January 2024
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $195.41 on 18 September 2025 , and currently trades at $89.13
| CVLT | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -39.1% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 502 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- CVLT stock fell 46.0% from a high of $51.55 on 12 February 2020 to $27.83 on 18 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 10 December 2020
| CVLT | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -46.0% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 267 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- CVLT stock fell 42.5% from a high of $71.80 on 13 June 2018 to $41.28 on 15 August 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 24 May 2021
| CVLT | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -42.5% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 648 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- CVLT stock fell 65.3% from a high of $22.87 on 6 November 2007 to $7.94 on 20 November 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 18 December 2009
| CVLT | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -65.3% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 393 days | 1,480 days |
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