CommVault Systems Stock Drop Looks Sharp, But How Deep Can It Go?
CommVault Systems (CVLT) stock is down 31.1% in a day. The recent slide reflects renewed concerns around CVLT’s unclear EPS guidance and short-term profitability, but sharp drops like this often raise a tougher question: is the weakness temporary, or a sign of deeper cracks in the story?
Before judging its downturn reslience, let’s look at where CommVault Systems stands today.
- Size: CommVault Systems is a $4.0 Bil company with $1.1 Bil in revenue currently trading at $89.13.
- Fundamentals: Last 12 month revenue growth of 22.0% and operating margin of 7.8%.
- Liquidity: Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.23 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.55
- Valuation: CommVault Systems stock is currently trading at P/E multiple of 49.3 and P/EBIT multiple of 45.6
- Has returned (median) 32.4% within a year following sharp dips since 2010. See CVLT Dip Buy Analysis.
These metrics point to a Strong operational performance, alongside High valuation – making the stock Fairly Priced. For details, see Buy or Sell CVLT Stock
That brings us to the key consideration for investors worried about this fall: how resilient is CVLT stock if markets turn south? This is where our downturn resilience framework comes in. Suppose CVLT stock falls another 20-30% to $62 – can investors comfortably hold on? Turns out, the stock has fared worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns, based on (a) how much the stock fell and, (b) how quickly it recovered. Below, we dive deeper into each such downturn.
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2022 Inflation Shock
- CVLT stock fell 39.1% from a high of $83.87 on 3 September 2021 to $51.08 on 15 September 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 30 January 2024
- Since then, the stock increased to a high of $195.41 on 18 September 2025 , and currently trades at $89.13
| CVLT | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -39.1% | -25.4% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 502 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic
- CVLT stock fell 46.0% from a high of $51.55 on 12 February 2020 to $27.83 on 18 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 10 December 2020
| CVLT | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -46.0% | -33.9% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 267 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction
- CVLT stock fell 42.5% from a high of $71.80 on 13 June 2018 to $41.28 on 15 August 2019 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 24 May 2021
| CVLT | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -42.5% | -19.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 648 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis
- CVLT stock fell 65.3% from a high of $22.87 on 6 November 2007 to $7.94 on 20 November 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
- However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 18 December 2009
| CVLT | S&P 500 | |
|---|---|---|
| % Change from Pre-Recession Peak | -65.3% | -56.8% |
| Time to Full Recovery | 393 days | 1,480 days |
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