CommVault Systems Stock To $97?
CommVault Systems (CVLT) stock has fallen by 27.4% in less than a month, from $193.03 on 9/29/2025 to $140.14 now. What comes next? As it turns out, the stock could fall even more. The current correction, when put in context of stock’s Very High valuation, suggest possibility of further downside. A price of $97 is not out of question, especially considering that the stock has seen this level in the last 5 years.
So should you wait before buying this dip? Perhaps. There is no perfect way to time the dips. Nevertheless, here is another perspective on CVLT stock to help you make the decision. The stock has returned (median) 61% in one year, and 68% as peak return following sharp dips (>30% in 30 days) historically. For quick background, CVLT provides data protection and information management software, integrated appliances, and related services for diverse business needs, supported by strategic partnerships with leading technology companies worldwide.
For details on stock fundamentals and assessment: Read Buy or Sell CommVault Systems Stock to see the full picture.
A single stock can be risky, but there is a huge value to a broader, diversified approach we take with the Trefis High Quality Portfolio. We go beyond just equities. Is a portfolio of 10% commodities, 10% gold, and 2% crypto in addition to equities and bonds likely to return more during the next 1-3 years, and protect you better if markets crash 20%? We have crunched the numbers.
Historical Median Returns Post Dips
| Period | Past Median Return |
|---|---|
| 1M | 11.3% |
| 3M | 16.1% |
| 6M | 24.7% |
| 12M | 61.3% |
Historical Dip-Wise Details
CVLT had 3 events since 1/1/2010 where the dip threshold of -30% within 30 days was triggered
- 68% median peak return within 1 year of dip event
- 183 days is the median time to peak return after a dip event
- -11% median max drawdown within 1 year of dip event
| 30 Day Dip | CVLT Subsequent Performance | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | CVLT | SPY | 1Y | Peak Return |
Max Drop |
# Days to Peak |
||
| Median | 61% | 68% | -11% | 183 | ||||
| 3122020 | -30% | -24% | 112% | 124% | -13% | 337 | ||
| 5012014 | -30% | 1% | -6% | 16% | -11% | 133 | ||
| 8182011 | -31% | -15% | 61% | 68% | -4% | 183 | ||
CommVault Systems Passes Basic Financial Quality Checks
Revenue growth, profitability, cash flow, and balance sheet strength need to be evaluated to reduce the risk of a dip being the sign of a deteriorating business situation.
| Quality Metrics | Value | Quality Check |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (LTM) | 18.6% | Pass |
| Revenue Growth (3-Yr Avg) | 9.2% | Pass |
| Operating Cash Flow Margin (LTM) | 20.8% | Pass |
| Leverage (see below) | – | Pass |
| => Interest Coverage Ratio | 195.8 | |
| => Cash To Interest Expense Ratio | 726.2 |
Dip buying, while attractive, needs to be evaluated carefully from multiple angles. Such multi-factor analysis is exactly how we construct the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.