Has Callon Petroleum Stock Reached Its Near-Term Potential?

CPE: Callon Petroleum logo
Callon Petroleum

The shares of Callon Petroleum (NYSE: CPE) are trading at 8% above pre-Covid levels observed in January 2020, assisted by rising benchmark prices and a recovery in transportation demand. The company is engaged in exploration and production of oil & natural gas in the Permian and Eagle Ford regions of the Southwestern U.S.  In 2019, Callon completed the acquisition of Carrizo Oil & Gas which more than doubled its production to 101 MBOED and led to a surge in long-term debt obligations. While benchmark prices have assisted cash generation in recent quarters, the highly levered balance sheet could be a drag to recent gains. Per the Trefis machine learning engine which analyzes historical stock price movements, CPE stock has a 51% chance of a rise over the next month (21 trading days). See our analysis Callon Petroleum Stock Chance of Rise for more details. (related: More Room For Growth In ConocoPhillips Stock?)

Five Days: CPE 5.3%, vs. S&P 500 -0.6%; Outperformed market (25% event probability)

  • CPE stock gained 5.3% over a five-day trading period ending 02/07/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined 0.6% over the same period.
  • Returns of 5.3% or higher over a five-day period on 629 occasions out of 2517 (25%); Stock rose in the next five days in 322 of these 629 instances (51%).
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Ten Days: CPE 5.5%, vs. S&P 500 1.7%; Outperformed market (30% event probability)

  • CPE stock gained 5.5% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which remained fairly stable.
  • Returns of 5.5% or higher over 10-day period on 760 occasions out of 2517 (30%); Stock rose in the next 10 days in 396 of these 760 instances (52%).

Twenty-One Days: CPE -3.3%, vs. S&P 500 -4.4%; Outperformed market (39% event probability)

  • CPE stock declined 3.3% over the last twenty-one trading days (about one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which fell by 4.4%.
  • Returns of -3.3% or lower over 21-day period on 987 occasions out of 2516 (39%); Stock rose in the next 21 days in 499 of these 987 instances (51%).

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 Returns Feb 2022
MTD [1]
YTD [1]
Total [2]
 CPE Return 5% 10% -66%
 S&P 500 Return -1% -6% 99%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return 0% -10% 255%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 2/7/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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