Which Gives You More Of Financial Market Activity, Coinbase Or S&P Global?
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Coinbase Global (COIN) and S&P Global (SPGI) both make money from financial market activity, and each company highlighted prediction markets as a new source of growth during its October earnings call. Coinbase operates a cryptocurrency trading platform, while S&P Global generates revenue through credit ratings, stock indices and market data. Over the year to November 10, Coinbase stock lost 57.3% while S&P Global returned 1.3%. So what did each company tell investors on its October call?
S&P Global Raised Guidance; Coinbase Leaned On Prediction Markets
On October 27, S&P Global raised its forecast for 2026 revenue growth to 7.9% at the midpoint, from 6.9% in July. Management said its ratings and indices businesses had done better than expected so far in 2026. S&P Global also said it had begun a review of options for Capital IQ and its associated data businesses, including a possible separation. Management added that it was pursuing opportunities in areas like prediction markets, but did not expect a meaningful effect on 2026 results.
Coinbase focused its update on its shifting revenue mix. On October 29, management said that prediction markets, launched in February, crossed $200 million of annualized run rate revenue in the third quarter. By management’s account, this growth made up for a 10% drop in overall crypto spot trading volume from the quarter before, and revenue held flat. Against a year earlier, however, Coinbase’s third-quarter revenue fell 35.0%.
The two announcements reflect different circumstances. S&P Global raised a forecast for its entire business, while Coinbase reported that a new product had filled a gap left by slower spot trading.
Coinbase’s Profit Swings While S&P Global Borrows For Buybacks
Coinbase keeps little of its revenue as operating profit when that revenue falls. Its operating margin was 2.5% in the third quarter of 2026, down from 23.8% in the third quarter of 2025. Coinbase’s balance sheet is the offset. On September 30, 2026, Coinbase held $2.3 billion more in cash and short-term investments than it owed in debt.
S&P Global owes more than it holds, with debt exceeding cash by $11.0 billion on the same date. Management now plans $7 billion of buybacks in 2026, double the $3.5 billion it announced in February. The company expects to issue about $2 billion of new debt as part of that plan.
Coinbase Trails S&P Global On Margin And Debt
S&P Global is ahead on operating margin and on debt. S&P Global’s operating margin over the twelve months to September 30, 2026 was 41.3%, against 5.7% for Coinbase. S&P Global’s debt also equals 9.8% of its market value, against 19.8% for Coinbase.
Coinbase is ahead on price to sales and on its longer record. Coinbase shares trade at 6.2 times sales, against 8.0 times for S&P Global. Coinbase’s revenue growth averaged 36.0% across its last three twelve-month periods, well above S&P Global’s, but the growth behind that average came in the periods ended September 2024 and September 2025, before the latest fall.
On these figures, S&P Global is the stronger way to own financial market activity. The company is growing, keeps far more of its revenue as profit and has less debt against its market value. Coinbase is the cheaper stock on sales and holds more cash than debt. The result that could change that is Coinbase’s revenue growth against a year earlier, which Coinbase is expected to report next in February 2027.
Does This Mean You Should Act On COIN?
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