Banks, Not Democrats, Threaten Coinbase Stock At $143
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Part of our midterms guide. Start here: what the vote really changes for your money.
Betting markets give Democrats about a 94% chance of taking the House on Tuesday. Coinbase is one of the biggest backers of Fairshake, the crypto super PAC that has spent to elect friendly lawmakers in both parties. So is a Democratic win bad for the stock? Start with where it stands.
| Coinbase (COIN) | The number |
|---|---|
| Share price, last close | $143.54 |
| Market value | $38B |
| Last 12 months | −56% |
| Trading revenue, Q3 vs a year ago | $590M, −44% |
| Stablecoin revenue, Q3 | $307M, about a quarter of net revenue |
Coinbase is already priced for a crypto winter. The election is the smaller risk.
The stock fell 13% in the last five days and 23% in the last month. It sits a few dollars above its 52-week low of about $141. Total revenue fell 35% from a year ago, to $1.22 billion.
See more lines: the quarter in detail
Q3 2026 (reported Oct 29): net revenue $1.16B; transaction revenue $590M; subscription and services $570M (49% of net revenue, up 3% from Q2); stablecoin revenue $307M; average USDC held in Coinbase products $22B, a record. Net income $719M, but about $715M of that was gains on crypto Coinbase holds; adjusted net income was about $78M and operating income about $62M. In June, Coinbase repaid $1.3B of maturing convertible notes in cash. Stablecoin share of net revenue: $307M ÷ $1,160M ≈ 26% (our arithmetic).
What Did Coinbase Want From Washington?
Mostly one bill. The CLARITY Act would set clear rules for trading crypto in the U.S. It passed the House in July 2025, then failed a key Senate vote 49 to 50 on September 15. Republicans ran the Senate. Democrats held out for ethics rules on officials’ crypto ties, aimed at the president’s family’s ventures. So the bill Coinbase wanted most is already stalled, whatever happens Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the SEC dropped its lawsuit-first approach to crypto and is writing friendlier rules on its own. A Democratic Congress can hold hearings about that. It can’t undo it past a veto.
So Where Is The Real Risk?
In stablecoins. Coinbase earns a large share of the interest on USDC, the stablecoin Circle issues, and pays some of it back to customers as rewards. That’s $307 million a quarter, more than half of what Coinbase now makes from trading.
Banks hate this. To them, an exchange paying rewards on a dollar token looks like a bank account without bank rules, and it pulls deposits. The 2025 stablecoin law, the GENIUS Act, bars issuers from paying interest. Banks want that ban widened to exchanges like Coinbase, and a regulator proposal in February moved to limit stablecoin yield and rewards, though the final rule in October left exchange rewards to case-by-case review. That fight is in every version of a crypto bill, and banks have friends in both parties.
What Does A Democratic Congress Actually Change?
Three things, none of them fast.
The terms of a 2027 crypto bill. Any rules bill would need Democratic votes and would carry ethics rules and, likely, tighter consumer protections. Slower, not dead.
Investigations. Democrats have said they’ll probe the Trump family’s crypto businesses. Coinbase isn’t the target, but hearings keep crypto in a bad light.
Rates. Stablecoin revenue rises with interest rates. A Democratic Senate makes rate-cutting Fed nominees harder to confirm, which would quietly help Coinbase’s biggest growth line.
How Did The Last Crypto Winter End For Coinbase?
Badly, then well. In 2022 the stock fell about 90% from its 2021 high, then nearly quintupled in 2023 as Bitcoin recovered. Congress didn’t drive either move. Bitcoin and trading volume did. That’s the pattern to watch now: Coinbase warned investors not to extrapolate its trading revenue so far this quarter. The difference this time is the cushion. Half of revenue now comes from subscriptions and services, mostly stablecoins, staking and interest, which don’t vanish when traders go quiet.
Coinbase’s election risk is a bank fight, not a party fight. The trading bill already stalled under Republicans, and the friendlier SEC doesn’t need Congress. What matters is whether stablecoin rewards survive the next bill, and where rates go. The stock will follow Bitcoin first.
For the whole sector, see What’s Happening With Crypto Stocks?. For the stablecoin side of the same fight, see Circle and the midterms.
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