Cummins Earnings Ahead: What Past Reactions Say About The Stock
Cummins (NYSE:CMI) is scheduled to report its earnings on Thursday, November 5, 2026. The company has a market value of about $69.0 billion. Over the last twelve months it generated $34.7 billion in revenue and $3.9 billion in operating profit, with net income of $2.7 billion.
How the stock moves after the release will depend on how the results and outlook compare with expectations. What history can offer is the base rate: how often, and how far, the stock has moved after past reports.
See the earnings reaction history of all stocks
Cummins’ Historical Odds Of A Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns, measured from the last close before each release:
- There are 19 earnings releases in the last five years, with 11 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns. Positive 1D returns were seen 58% of the time.
- Over the last three years that share rises to 73%, across 11 releases.
- The median of the 11 positive 1D returns is 3.7%, and the median of the 8 negative ones is -2.5%.
- The largest one-day reactions were 8.9% and -10.7%.
The table below shows the 1D, 5-day (5D) and 21-day (21D) returns after each release, followed by summary statistics.
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/4/2026 | -2.0% | -2.2% | -14.7% |
| 5/5/2026 | 2.8% | 7.0% | 4.2% |
| 2/5/2026 | -10.7% | -1.1% | -10.7% |
| 11/6/2025 | 5.4% | 9.2% | 16.8% |
| 8/5/2025 | 3.2% | 7.4% | 9.0% |
| 5/5/2025 | 0.8% | 2.3% | 8.8% |
| 2/4/2025 | 4.4% | 7.4% | 0.2% |
| 11/5/2024 | 8.9% | 10.1% | 16.8% |
| 8/1/2024 | 4.9% | 0.1% | 6.6% |
| 5/2/2024 | -1.3% | 1.8% | -0.2% |
| 2/6/2024 | 4.3% | 6.5% | 14.1% |
| 11/2/2023 | -0.1% | -0.3% | 4.6% |
| 8/3/2023 | -7.5% | -9.0% | -11.6% |
| 5/2/2023 | -3.0% | -4.6% | -12.2% |
| 2/6/2023 | -2.0% | -3.6% | 0.7% |
| 11/3/2022 | -3.5% | -1.5% | 4.2% |
| 8/2/2022 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| 5/3/2022 | 3.7% | 4.0% | 7.4% |
| 2/3/2022 | 0.3% | -0.4% | -10.2% |
| Statistic | 1D | 5D | 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| # Positive | 11 | 11 | 13 |
| # Negative | 8 | 8 | 6 |
| Median Positive | 3.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | -1.8% | -11.2% |
| Max Positive | 8.9% | 10.1% | 16.8% |
| Max Negative | -10.7% | -9.0% | -14.7% |
Does The First Move Carry On?
Another approach is to wait for the initial reaction and ask whether it tends to continue. The table below shows the correlation between the 1D return and the return over the following 5 and 21 trading days, and between the 5D return and the following 21 trading days. A value near 1 means the first move has tended to continue; near -1, to reverse; near 0, no consistent pattern. None of the five-year correlations is strong enough to trade on: all are below 0.40 in absolute terms. The three-year figures are larger, at -0.57 for 1D vs next 5D and 0.44 for 5D vs next 21D, but they rest on only 11 releases.
| History | 1D vs next 5D | 1D vs next 21D | 5D vs next 21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Years | -0.18 | 0.32 | 0.21 |
| 3 Years | -0.57 | 0.37 | 0.44 |
Do Peers That Report First Offer A Clue?
Caterpillar (CAT), PACCAR (PCAR) and Eaton (ETN) usually report about 2 to 9 days before Cummins, and have already reported this season. The table compares each peer’s one-day reaction to its own earnings with Cummins’ one-day reaction to the report that followed. The correlations are CAT (-0.13), PCAR (-0.16), ETN (-0.34); the closer to 1, the more the peer’s reaction has foreshadowed Cummins’, and a clearly negative value means it has tended to point the other way.
| CMI Earnings Date | CMI 1D | CAT 1D | PCAR 1D | ETN 1D |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/4/2026 | -2.0% | n/a | 3.6% | 7.3% |
| 5/5/2026 | 2.8% | 9.9% | -6.0% | n/a |
| 2/5/2026 | -10.7% | 3.4% | -1.1% | 0.9% |
| 11/6/2025 | 5.4% | 11.6% | 2.4% | -2.3% |
| 8/5/2025 | 3.2% | n/a | 6.1% | n/a |
| 5/5/2025 | 0.8% | 0.6% | -1.9% | -0.6% |
| 2/4/2025 | 4.4% | -4.6% | -2.4% | -0.2% |
| 11/5/2024 | 8.9% | -2.1% | -4.4% | -3.3% |
| 8/1/2024 | 4.9% | n/a | -11.0% | n/a |
| 5/2/2024 | -1.3% | -7.0% | -6.6% | -2.5% |
| 2/6/2024 | 4.3% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 7.5% |
| 11/2/2023 | -0.1% | -6.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% |
| 8/3/2023 | -7.5% | 8.9% | -2.7% | 6.7% |
| 5/2/2023 | -3.0% | -0.9% | 1.4% | n/a |
| 2/6/2023 | -2.0% | -3.5% | 8.6% | n/a |
| 11/3/2022 | -3.5% | 7.7% | -0.3% | 1.0% |
| 8/2/2022 | 0.4% | n/a | 1.1% | n/a |
| 5/3/2022 | 3.7% | -0.7% | -2.9% | n/a |
| 2/3/2022 | 0.3% | -5.2% | 3.1% | n/a |
| Correlation | – | -0.13 | -0.16 | -0.34 |
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