CMG Down 24% In A Month. How Confident Are You In The Stock?

August 5th, 2025 · by Trefis Team
CMGYTD-11.6%SPYYTD+13.2%XLYYTD-7.0%
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Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) stock is down 24.5% in 21 trading days. Already own the stock or planning to buy? You might want to re-consider based on the valuation as the stock still looks expensive. Consider the following data:

  • A $58 Bil company with $11 Bil in revenue currently trading at $42.88.
  • Last 12 month revenue growth of 12.6% and operating margin of 17.6%.
  • Has Debt to Equity ratio of 0.1 and Cash to Assets ratio of 0.2
  • Currently trading at P/E multiple of 37.2 and P/EBIT multiple of 28.7
  • Has one instance since 2010 where it dipped >30% in < 30 days and subsequently returned 141% within a year. See CMG Dip Buy Analysis.

While we like to buy dips if the fundamentals check out – for CMG, see Buy or Sell CMG Stock – we are wary of falling knives. Specifically, it is worth trying to answer if things get really bad, and CMG drops another 20-30% to $30.02 levels, will we be able to hold on to the stock? What is the worst case scenario? We call it downturn resilience.

Below is a deep dive into Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) downturn resilience – specifically, its performance vs the market during past crises? Turns out, the stock saw an impact slightly worse than the S&P 500 index during various economic downturns.

CMG founded in 1993, this company operates around 3,000 restaurants across the US, Canada, the UK, France, Germany, and Europe.

2022 Inflation Shock

  • CMG stock fell 38.1% from a high of $38.88 on 23 September 2021 to $24.08 on 14 June 2022 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% for the S&P 500.
  • However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 26 April 2023
  • Since then, the stock increased to a high of $68.55 on 19 June 2024 , and currently trades at $42.88

CMG S&P 500
% Change from Pre-Recession Peak -38.1% -25.4%
# of Days for Full Recovery 316 464

 
2020 Covid Pandemic

  • CMG stock fell 50.2% from a high of $18.68 on 19 February 2020 to $9.30 on 18 March 2020 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 33.9% for the S&P 500.
  • However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 11 May 2020

CMG S&P 500
% Change from Pre-Recession Peak -50.2% -33.9%
# of Days for Full Recovery 54 148

 
2018 Correction

  • CMG stock fell 49.3% from a high of $9.92 on 16 May 2017 to $5.03 on 13 February 2018 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% for the S&P 500.
  • However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 15 August 2018

CMG S&P 500
% Change from Pre-Recession Peak -49.3% -19.8%
# of Days for Full Recovery 183 120

 
2008 Global Financial Crisis

  • CMG stock fell 74.6% from a high of $3.05 on 26 December 2007 to $0.77 on 20 November 2008 vs. a peak-to-trough decline of 56.8% for the S&P 500.
  • However, the stock fully recovered to its pre-Crisis peak by 15 June 2010

CMG S&P 500
% Change from Pre-Recession Peak -74.6% -56.8%
# of Days for Full Recovery 572 1480

 
Worried that CMG could fall much more? You could take a look at the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.

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