Cloudera Fell After Earnings, Will It Climb Back?

Cloudera’s stock (NYSE: CLDR) has fallen by 6.5% over the last five trading days. In comparison, the broader S&P500 rose by 4.2% over the last five trading days. Cloudera, a software company that provides a software platform for data engineering, data warehousing, machine learning, and analytics saw its share price fall after it reported FY 2020 (ended January 2021) results, despite the earnings beating the consensus estimates. The primary reason for the fall seems to be fiscal year 2022 guidance by the company being lower than the investor sentiment. Though now, is CLDR’s stock poised to grow? We believe that there is a 47% chance of a fall in CLDR’s stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last five years. See our analysis on Cloudera’s Stock Chances Of Rise for more details.

5D: CLDR -6.5%, vs. S&P500 4.2%; Underperformed market

(14% likelihood event)

• CLDR stock declined 6.5% over a five day trading period ending 3/15/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 4.2%
• A change of -6.5% or more over five trading days is a 14% likelihood event, which has occurred 140 times out of 971 in the last four years

10D: CLDR -22%, vs. S&P500 2.1%; Underperformed market

(5% likelihood event)

• CLDR stock declined 22% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 2.1%
• A change of -22% or more over ten trading days is a 5% likelihood event, which has occurred 46 times out of 955 in the last four years

21D: CLDR -30%, vs. S&P500 1.7%; Underperformed market

(41% likelihood event)

• CLDR stock declined 30% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.7%
• A change of -30% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 41% likelihood event, which has occurred 372 times out of 913 in the last four years

While Cloudera stock may have moved, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how the stock valuation for International Business Machines vs. D.R. Horton shows a disconnect with their relative operational growth. You can find many such discontinuous pairs here.