How Will Charter Communications Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Charter Communications (NASDAQ:CHTR) is set to report its earnings on Friday, October 31, 2025. The company has $33 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $55 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $14 Bil in operating profits and net income of $5.3 Bil. While the post-earnings stock reaction will depend on how the results and outlook stack up against investor expectations, a detailed look at historical results can aid you if you are an event-driven trader.
Here is how: either understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings announcement, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and enter a trade one day after the announcement.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Charter Communications’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 19 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 9 positive and 10 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 47% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 45% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 9 positive returns = 5.2%, and median of the 10 negative returns = -5.8%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/25/2025 | -18.5% | -29.1% | -27.0% |
| 4/25/2025 | 11.4% | 14.2% | 21.2% |
| 1/31/2025 | 2.6% | 5.0% | 10.1% |
| 11/1/2024 | 11.9% | 20.0% | 20.4% |
| 7/26/2024 | 16.6% | 19.6% | 10.6% |
| 4/26/2024 | -1.7% | 1.1% | 4.8% |
| 2/2/2024 | -16.5% | -26.1% | -27.0% |
| 10/27/2023 | -9.6% | 0.2% | -3.6% |
| 7/28/2023 | -1.0% | 5.4% | 3.9% |
| 4/28/2023 | 7.6% | 1.8% | -3.6% |
| 1/27/2023 | -3.9% | 0.5% | -8.6% |
| 10/28/2022 | 3.7% | -3.1% | 8.2% |
| 7/29/2022 | -0.8% | 5.5% | -2.3% |
| 4/29/2022 | -7.2% | -1.1% | 10.5% |
| 1/28/2022 | 5.2% | 8.8% | 7.3% |
| 10/29/2021 | -4.4% | -2.9% | -5.4% |
| 7/30/2021 | 4.2% | 7.9% | 13.1% |
| 4/30/2021 | 0.5% | 0.9% | 3.7% |
| 1/29/2021 | -7.2% | -5.3% | -5.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 9 | 13 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 5.2% | 5.4% | 10.1% |
| Median Negative | -5.8% | -4.2% | -5.4% |
| Max Positive | 16.6% | 20.0% | 21.2% |
| Max Negative | -18.5% | -29.1% | -27.0% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D Returns | 1D_21D Returns | 5D_21D Returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 31.0% | 29.4% | -29.3% |
| 3Y History | 42.3% | 42.7% | -31.1% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Charter Communications stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Charter Communications. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| CHTR Earnings Dates | CHTR | TMUS |
| 7/25/2025 | -18.5% | 4.1% |
| 4/25/2025 | 11.4% | -11.2% |
| 1/31/2025 | 2.6% | -0.9% |
| 11/1/2024 | 11.9% | 1.1% |
| 4/26/2024 | -1.7% | -0.1% |
| 2/2/2024 | -16.5% | -0.5% |
| 10/27/2023 | -9.6% | -0.7% |
| 7/28/2023 | -1.0% | 0.7% |
| 4/28/2023 | 7.6% | -4.0% |
| 10/28/2022 | 3.7% | 7.4% |
| 7/29/2022 | -0.8% | 1.5% |
| 4/29/2022 | -7.2% | -5.2% |
| 7/30/2021 | 4.2% | -0.4% |
| CORRELATION | -28.8% |
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