Are You Sure You Understand Constellation Energy Stock’s Risk?

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Investors might hold Constellation Energy (CEG) as a power company and view power stocks as a calm corner of the market. Constellation has not been calm lately. On October 26, 2026, its shares closed 36.8% below their highest close of the past year. Over the past month they lost 4.1%, while NextEra Energy, Duke Energy and Southern gained between 7.8% and 11.7%. So how far has Constellation stock fallen when the whole market turned, and how long did it stay down?

How Far Has Constellation Stock Fallen In Market Shocks?

Constellation has usually fallen further than the S&P 500 when the broader market turned. Across the five market shocks Constellation has faced since it began trading in February 2022, the stock fell an average of 21.4%, compared with a 12.8% decline for the index over the same windows. The deepest of those drops occurred during the 2025 US tariff shock, when Constellation lost 47.0% while the S&P 500 lost 19.0%. The stock did not always fall harder, however: during the 2022 inflation shock, it lost 19.0%, slightly less than the 21.1% the S&P 500 lost.

The stock has also recovered quickly each time. It returned to its earlier high following all five falls, taking a median of 1.8 months from its low. Even the 2025 decline took only 2.7 months to recover.

How Has Constellation’s Business Changed In A Year?

Constellation is a larger company than it was a year ago, and it has far more debt. Revenue for fiscal Q2 2026, which ended June 30, reached $7.5 billion, up 23.0% from a year earlier. Management said adjusted operating earnings of $2.55 per share were $0.64 higher than a year before, crediting the Calpine acquisition, higher capacity prices and its commercial business.

On a reported basis, operating income fell to $580 million from $951 million a year earlier, and GAAP EPS dropped to $1.42 from $2.67, weighed down by unrealized hedge losses and non-cash amortization of Calpine contracts. Over the four quarters ending June 30, the operating margin stood at 14.3%, close to the 13.9% recorded a year before. Total debt climbed to $24.7 billion on June 30, 2026, up from $8.3 billion a year earlier. That debt equals 27.2% of Constellation’s market value, compared with 19.4% for the S&P 500.

Where Constellation Is Under Pressure Now

Management raised its full-year forecast on the August 6, 2026 call, yet also pointed to pressure in Texas, in Illinois and at its nuclear plants. The company now expects adjusted operating earnings of $11.50 to $12.50 per share for fiscal 2026, up from $11 to $12.

In Texas, management said battery storage and other supply are arriving on the grid earlier than demand. It expects the market to tighten as data centers get built. Constellation’s Texas segment brought in $1.9 billion of revenue in fiscal 2025, 7.5% of the company’s total that year. That share comes before this year’s growth from the Calpine deal, so it may not reflect Texas exposure today.

The timing of revenue from a program in Illinois, which management calls the Illinois ZEC program, also weighed on the quarter. Management said the timing has no effect on full-year results, but the program itself ends in May 2027.

During the second quarter, the nuclear fleet operated at a 93% capacity factor, which represents the share of its full output it delivered. Management said more planned refueling outage days lowered that figure from the second quarter of 2025. The capacity factor of Constellation’s nuclear fleet is the measure to watch when the company next reports, expected in November 2026.

Does This Mean You Should Act On CEG?

Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.

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