Can This Number Push Constellation Energy Stock Higher?
You probably judge Constellation Energy (CEG) like any utility, by its quarterly earnings. Look first at long-term contracts that sell its nuclear power to large customers. The stock is down 24% over the past year, while the S&P 500 is up 16.2%. After a fall like that, power sold for years ahead is the part worth measuring. So how much of Constellation’s output is already sold under these long-term contracts?
Long-Term Contracts Cover Roughly 30% Of Clean Baseload Output
Roughly 30% of Constellation’s clean baseload output is now under long-term agreements. Management gave that figure on its fiscal Q2 2026 call in August. Baseload is power produced around the clock.
Constellation has been building that share. It signed about 920 megawatts of long-term nuclear deals between its previous call and the August call. Calvert Cliffs, Maryland’s only nuclear plant, is 1,790 megawatts, so the new deals equal about half of it. These contracts average 18.5 years, and the customers are investment-grade, meaning their credit ratings are strong.
You may not expect the names. Walmart signed its first nuclear power purchase agreement, which management called a first for a major retailer. Amazon and Constellation announced a 20-year agreement on September 30, 2026. Constellation will add about 190 megawatts of nuclear capacity at Calvert Cliffs under that deal.
Constellation fell behind its own timeline earlier in 2026. In March, management said regulatory uncertainty had put its long-term agreements behind schedule.
Is Regulation Still Slowing Constellation’s Contract Signing?
Less than it did in March, but the rules are not final. Most of Constellation’s nuclear plants are in PJM, a power market whose rules are changing. FERC, the regulator, is requiring PJM to move quickly.
Management said on the August call that customers had gained confidence to move forward with planning and contracting. The deals signed before the August call are the evidence so far.
The worry has not gone away. Management said on the same call that parts of PJM’s proposals still need clarification. Management also expects a FERC order in the first or second quarter of 2027.
The stock’s fall over the past year has no single stated cause. Regulation is the reason management gave for falling behind on long-term agreements. Customers are signing while the rules are still being written.
Constellation Has Not Said What Customers Pay
Constellation has not disclosed the exact prices in these contracts. In March, management gave a range for the potential value of contracts. On the August call, a question put that range at $20 to $50 a megawatt hour. Management kept the range as it is, citing customers’ sensitivity about exact pricing. A megawatt hour is the unit in which power is sold.
The high end is two and a half times the low end. The same contracted share could therefore be worth very different amounts. Management did describe existing nuclear power as a premium product in these deals.
You cannot see the contract prices, but you can see what the stock costs. Constellation trades at 26.4 times earnings, against 21.7 for the S&P 500. That measure, the P/E, is the share price divided by a year of profit per share. So you are paying more for each dollar of Constellation’s profit than for the market’s.
If signing stalls, you own a utility with a higher P/E than the market. Roughly 70% of its clean baseload output would still be outside long-term agreements.
Constellation is signing, and its latest announced deal is with Amazon. The rules are the less settled part. Management expects FERC’s order in the first or second quarter of 2027. For Constellation Energy stock, the contracted share after FERC’s order is the number to watch. If that number is still near 30% after the order, the signing has stalled.
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